According to Washington, Moscow, realizing the failure, is already preparing provocations to find a reason to invade Ukraine. The opinion of the Kremlin sounds absurd – the United States is artificially luring not only Ukraine, but also the Scandinavian countries into NATO, so it’s time for Russia to prepare for war.
To the topic Putin must choose between sanctions and negotiations – White House
Further, I propose to understand in more detail how the tense week of negotiations between Russia and the West ended. And why are their results quite disappointing.
Cyber attack on Ukrainian sites
Let’s start with the fact that on January 14, Ukraine woke up and found out – a number of government websites (from the Cabinet of Ministers to the Ministry of Education) were hacked. Because of this, they were out of order.
The hacked sites did not work, but by going to them you could see a picture that said that this attack is revenge on the Ukrainians for, I quote: “Volhynia, for the OUN UPA, for Galicia, for Polissya.” In addition, the message contains a threat to the Ukrainian people.
Who could be behind a cyberattack
Who is behind the cyberattack is still unknown. But, for example, the American edition Axios very aptly noticedthat the cyberattack took place less than a day after Moscow’s failed talks with the West.
In addition, just a few hours after Lavrov’s hysterical statements that they refused to accept Ukraine into NATO, and therefore it is time to prepare for the worst.
Of course, I cannot say that it is the Kremlin that is behind the cyberattacks – let the investigation figure it out first. But everything fits into a single puzzle.
Especially after warnings from the State Department and the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry that before Moscow decides to invade, it will try to hybridize destabilize Ukraine. A cyberattack is very similar to a kind of warning – the Kremlin is ready to avenge our Western aspirations.
By the way It looks like a cyberattack was carried out from Russia – Information Security Center
It is also important to note here that the EU responded very quickly for a cyber attack. He was the first to offer Ukraine assistance in the investigation.
I cannot say with 100% certainty that it was Russia that attacked Ukrainian sites. But in the light of the statements that were made by the Kremlin on January 14, one gets the impression that Moscow still had a hand in it. And this may just be the beginning of a new hybrid war.
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Russia is looking for an excuse to blame Ukraine
On January 14, American intelligence published data on the future scenario of the Kremlin for a hybrid invasion of Ukraine.
US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan says the US intelligence community knows the Kremlin is looking for a reason to accuse Ukraine She supposedly went on the attack first. One of the options for provocation is a special operation in the Donbass.
In the same time Ukrainian intelligence reportedthat the Russians are preparing provocations against their own military, who are stationed in Transnistria. The Kremlin wants to then blame Ukraine for everything and use this as an excuse to invade.
The units of Russian troops in the occupied part of Moldova have already received warnings. It says that Ukraine is allegedly preparing to attack them.
Teachings of the enemy near the borders of Ukraine
In addition, Russia is not just not removing troops from the Ukrainian border. It also leads to combat readiness additional forces. The Russian Defense Ministry reported that the exercises began in the Eastern Military District in preparation for the Vostok-2022 strategic command and staff exercises.
note Under a false flag: intelligence warned that Russia is preparing a special operation in the Donbass
The Russian ministry says that the main task of the exercises will be to assess the capabilities of the country’s transport infrastructure to ensure the transport of troops on time. That is, the Kremlin directly states that it is preparing to move even more soldiers closer to Ukraine.
Hysteria Lavrov
The statements coming from the Kremlin also deserve special attention. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov dumped another portion claims against the West. For example, in his opinion, there is absolutely no point in expanding NATO, because the Cold War period is long over.
Lavrov threw out a portion of claims against the West / Photo by Getty Images
In addition, Russia supposedly no longer has a military alliance, which it had before the collapse of the Warsaw Pact, because NATO is artificially trying to expand eastward with the goal of attacking “defenseless” Russia. And Ukraine and the Scandinavian countries will be at the forefront in this mythical attack.
Actual Lavrov complained that Europe fulfills the “Wishlist” of Ukraine, not Russia
Of course, this sounds crazy, because the same Scandinavian countries did not even think about joining NATO – Finland generally went its own way. But as soon as they realized what kind of threat Russia poses to Ukraine, they immediately changed their minds and are now striving to join NATO.
Why NATO pissed off the Kremlin
On the other hand, it is understandable why Lavrov is so hysterical. Russia not only failed negotiations with the West, but also pushed NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg to make a statement that irritates the Kremlin – the Alliance is finally decided to accept Ukraine and Georgia in their ranks and it’s not even worth discussing.
Stoltenberg made an important statement / Photo by Getty Images
The only question is when this will happen. And more importantly, Stoltenberg said that NATO will be there and will help Ukraine in the event of a Russian invasion.
But Lavrov did not seem to hear this, and continued to blame the West for all the troubles. He also demanded to give Russia a written answer about Ukraine as soon as possible.
In addition, Lavrov only confirmed the fears of the West that Moscow is looking for an excuse to invade – in one sentence. Like, Ukraine can prepare a military operation against Russian speakers.
The West is not going to make concessions to Putin
It is obvious that the Kremlin, having received a decisive rebuff from the West, is right now trying to raise the stakes even more. Or he pretends that he has nothing more to lose, and therefore he is ready for the craziest step. Fortunately, the West is not going to make concessions to Putin either.
It is worth noting a very important point here – on January 13, the US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken stated, that Russian aggression is no longer exclusively a problem for Ukraine – it is already a question of international security.
Blinken said that Russian aggression is no longer only a problem for Ukraine / Photo by Getty Images
Therefore, the entire West, and not just Ukraine, will respond to the Kremlin’s aggression. And then Blinken added that if Moscow chooses the path of confrontation, the United States is ready for this.
In fact, the West has only now begun to tell Putin directly that no one is going to comply with his demands. But at the same time, no one is going to persuade or appease you – if you want war, you will get war.
The issue of missile placement
The only thing that the United States is still ready to discuss with the Kremlin is the issue of deploying missiles and conducting military exercises. Washington insists that any compromises on this subject are possible only under 2 conditions:
- agreements on missiles and exercises should be mutual;
- Moscow must document its commitments.
Important De-escalation in relation to Ukraine: the US and NATO are ready to continue talking with Russia
For this kind of negotiations, a separate format is needed. And what is important – these agreements will concern only future exercises and the future deployment of missiles. Everything that the United States has in Europe today, no one will change!
In addition, the United States is ready to continue dialogue with Moscow only after the de-escalation of tensions. Washington considers the withdrawal of Russian troops from our borders to be its main sign. If this does not happen, there will be no further dialogue.
USA ready to defend
Now it all looks like a dead end – no one is going to make concessions, but they are not going to give up either. Here, many may have quite justified skepticism – if Russia starts an invasion of Ukraine, it is unlikely that any sanctions will stop it. And I agree with this.
But Washington repeated for a long time and cryptically – in addition to sanctions, we have other instruments of pressure on Russia.
And here Biden’s national security adviser Sullivan finally opened up these very tools:
- First, the US is ready to deploy additional forces on NATO’s eastern flank. Also sharply increase the supply of weapons and other assistance to Ukraine.
- Secondly, and this was the first time that the US and the West have generally agreed that in the event of Russian aggression, they will immediately begin to limit Russia’s export opportunities. But not only in the USA and Europe, but also in other parts of the world!
Importantly, Washington has already calculated the losses from such an embargo and is ready for the US to cover these losses in other countries. But they are ready for it.
In summary, it was a difficult week that ended with even more confrontation. But Russia’s actions and statements increasingly look like the behavior of a cornered criminal.
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