••• Von Reinhard Krémer
Austrian companies can look back on a tough year – and for the first time in a long time they see the outlook as subdued. The assessment of their own business climate deteriorated significantly as a result of the pandemic. The proportion of those companies that rate their current business situation as unreservedly positive has fallen from 59% in the previous year to 37% – the number of those that rate them as negative has increased from eight to 28%.
Nevertheless, seven out of ten (72%) SMEs currently rate the business situation as rather good or good, in comparison: at the beginning of 2020 it was 92%, as a study by the auditing and consulting organization EY shows.
gather strength
Erich Lehner, Managing Partner Markets and person responsible for medium-sized companies at EY Austria, is not surprised that the optimism with regard to their own business situation is clouded over Financial crisis – a quarter of those surveyed even expect the economic situation to deteriorate further. But right now it is important to gather all your strength and take a courageous look ahead. Driven by digitization and transformation, there are also opportunities for medium-sized companies that need to be seized. “
For the first time since the global economic crisis almost 13 years ago, more companies are anticipating a deterioration in their business situation rather than an improvement – one in four managers (24%) is skeptical, only one in five (22%) has a positive opinion.
Pessimists just ahead
The proportion of those who expect a deterioration has risen from 9% at the beginning of 2020 to 24% – this value was only higher in November 2008 (36%).
In the real estate and construction sector, almost two thirds of SMEs (61%) are satisfied with the business situation, followed by the energy and water supply sector (57%). These two industries are the only ones in which more respondents rate the business climate as positive than negative.
As expected, tourism brings up the rear; here only 14% currently rate their business situation as good. In the previous year it was 62%.
Where the optimists are
Transport and traffic, industry as well as the retail and consumer goods sector are particularly positive about the development in the next six months – in all three sectors three out of ten companies (31% in transport and industry and 30% in retail) have one Improvement of the business situation.
In all other areas, only 16% to 23% can be carried away to be optimistic about their own short-term business development. In addition to their own business situation, the assessment of the domestic economy is also clearly deteriorating: Almost two thirds of medium-sized companies (63%) currently assume that the economic situation in Germany will (further) worsen in the first half of 2021.
Pessimists are growing
Only every fifth company (20%) expects the domestic economy to improve during this period. The economic outlook is therefore as bad as it was last in 2009, when 79% expected a deterioration.
The share of economic pessimists has grown strongly for the third year in a row and has even more than doubled compared to the previous year (63% in 2021, 25% in 2020, 8% in 2019) – the domestic SME sector was expecting a positive development in the economic situation last at the beginning of 2019. Despite all the pessimism, the willingness to invest remains relatively stable: After all, every third company in Austria (33%) would like to invest more in the coming months, with half (53%) the investments are expected to remain the same.
Investments remain high
Only around every seventh company (14%) intends to cut back on their own investments. All in all, the number of medium-sized companies that want to expand their investment activity has increased slightly compared to the beginning of 2020 – but remains below the level of previous years.
The greatest fear, which not only restricts companies’ ability to plan, but also greatly depresses optimism, is the renewed outbreak of a pandemic – three quarters (76%) see this as the greatest threat to the development of their company.
Concern for the upswing
For the first time in years, the shortage of skilled workers has been pushed out of first place – in the previous year two thirds (69%) stated that the lack of qualified applicants posed the greatest risk to the development of their own company; this year, however, it was only more than six out of ten (57%).
However, concerns about an economic downturn have increased more than significantly: While in the previous year 43% of SMEs viewed a possible recession as a potential risk, this year it is almost three quarters (71%) of the total of 800 companies with 30 to 2,000 employees .
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