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Climate: “The return of the United States has re-mobilized some countries”

Posted on Apr 22, 2021, 6:00 PM

Is the Paris Agreement saved? Are we back on the path of 1.5 degrees of warming?

This summit should not be seen as an end point. There is still some time between now and COP26 for countries to continue making announcements. But, indeed, this summit has re-mobilized certain economies which have made stronger commitments. They might not be as far along without the United States’ return to the deal and their decision to cut emissions by 50 to 52%. Along with China and Europe, this country represents more than half of global emissions. Their commitment has a huge impact on the achievement of collective goals. It encourages others to be more ambitious.

Is the re-engagement of the United States solid over time?

The Trump presidency episode showed two things. First, that the climate remains a very political subject with factions that have formed within the country to refuse to move forward. Secondly, that the American withdrawal had no contagion effect on other countries. The Paris Agreement has been resilient. But the real test remains the raising of national commitments. We will see what will happen between now and November and the COP in Glasgow. There are still States which are not enough of a driving force and, with regard to the commitments made, many questions remain as to whether they will be followed up. In any case, the announced objectives are a signal sent to companies and investors. We saw it under the Trump era with the coalition of local elected officials, governors and large companies to say “We are still here”.

Are emerging countries, primarily China, ambitious enough?

To limit global warming to 1.5 degrees, the IPCC is categorical, it is necessary to achieve carbon neutrality in 2050. But this is a global average. We can accept differences on the part of the less developed countries. In China, per capita income is much higher than in other developing countries, but it is still lower than that of Western economies. The fact of not all lining up on the same date is also a guarantee of credibility. China has not announced anything, other than reaffirming the goal of carbon neutrality by 2060 that it declared last September. It thus shows that it is not acting under pressure from the Europeans and the United States and that if it is committed to the climate, it is first of all in its own interest.

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