Chip stocks and AMG are the most favored funds throughout next year, but we should steer clear of Philips and Air France-KLM.
This is evident from the National Investor Sentiment, measured this month by IEX among 1882 investors – an all-time record. Thank you for taking the time to complete the survey!
The overall sentiment is still bullish and similar to last month. 44.2% are (very) positive about equity markets overall, just down from 45.7% last month. Only 15% are (very) pessimistic; last month it was almost 20%.
For the coming month, 44.7% expect a hike in the AEX, compared to 47.5% a month ago. Over a slightly longer period – six months – the percentage is almost 60%.
The Sentiments indicator, the sum of all survey questions, increased slightly from 52.3 last month to 52.8 now (50 is neutral, above is bullish and below is bearish).
All expectations lined up
The full poll results for December are as follows (November scores in parentheses):
- Very optimistic: 4.6% (was 6%)
- Optimistic: 31.7% (was 26%)
- Neutral: 40.4% (was 39.3%)
- Pessimistic: 20.2% (was 23.9%)
- Very pessimistic: 3.1% (was 4.8%)
Stock markets in general
- Very optimistic: 5.6% (was 6.6%)
- Optimistic: 38.6% (was 39.1%)
- Neutral: 40.7% (was 34.4%)
- Pessimistic: 13.1% (was 16.5%)
- Very pessimistic: 2% (was 3.4%)
AEX next month
- Up: 44.7% (was 47.5%)
- Neutral: 42.3% (was 34.4%)
- Down: 13% (was 18.1%)
AEX next six months
- Up: 59.7% (was 62.8%)
- Neutral: 20.9% (was 18.6%)
- Down: 19.4% (was 18.6%)
Extra question: toppers and floppers 2023
For the additional question this time, we were curious which titles you see as favourites all of 2023and which stocks are the least promising. You can choose between AEX and AMX stocks for this question. Votes for and against cancel each other out.
ASML is clearly number 1, with more than 400 upvotes in total. Another chipper, Besi, also gets high marks and is in second place. ING closes the top 3.
Respondents have the least confidence in Philips, which receives no fewer than 380 negative votes. Just Eat Takeaway and ArcelorMittal follow at arm’s length.
|AEX 2023 Toppers||AEX 2023 fins|
|ASML (+404)||Philips (-380)|
|Iron (+110)||Eat takeaway only (-74)|
|Eng (+82)||ArcelorMittal (-51)|
When looking at mid-cap stocks, AMG is by far the most popular. Fugro and Vopak are not far apart with 36 and 34 upvotes on balance. The absolute flop is Air France-KLM, followed by PostNL and Galapagos in third place.
|Toppers AMX 2023||AMX-flopper 2023|
|AMG (+101)||Air France-KLM (-191)|
|Fugro (+36)||PostNL (-90)|
|Vopak (+34)||Galapagos (-69)|
Securities withdrawals in November
Of course we also take a look at how the titles chosen for November have performed. It was a good month on the stock exchanges, the AEX was up more than 7%. The top list narrowly beats the index thanks to strong results from ASML (+16.1%) and ING (+15.6%). Shell stayed down and Aegon fell slightly.
Things went completely in the “wrong” direction on the flops, as those stocks rallied strongly. Just Eat Takeaway and Prosus in particular were able to add a lot: respectively 21.5% and almost 30%.
|Toppers November 2022||Product||Flopper November 2022||Product|
|Shell||-0.1%||Just eat takeout||+21.5%|
Favorite stock December
Then the expectations for December. We asked investors which AEX stocks have the most and least expectations for the coming month.
Chippers are also the most popular here, with no less than three chip stocks in the top 4. ING also received a lot of votes and is in second place. It’s surprising that Shell is disappearing.
Respondents have as little confidence in Philips for next month as they do for next year. Just Eat Takeaway and Prosus disappeared from the flop list, giving way to Unibail-Rodamco and Randstad.
|Toppers December 2022||To vote||Floppers December 2022||To vote|
Of IEX editorial is made up of a team of content managers, journalists and analysts, with more than one hundred years of combined experience in producing and publishing investment information and opinion. The information in this column is not intended to be professional investment advice or a recommendation for making any particular investment. Publishers may hold positions in one or more of the funds listed. Click here for an overview of their investments.