Yi Fuxian, a Chinese scholar in the United States who has been studying the Chinese population for a long time, published “The Big Country’s Empty Nest: China’s Family Planning Going Astray” in 2007, which was frozen by China.Picture: Reversed from Yi Fuxian’s Twitter
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“China’s economy will never surpass the United States”? !Yi Fuxian, a Chinese scholar in the United States who has studied the Chinese population for a long time, accepts“Voice of America”During the interview, he stated surprisingly that the biggest problem in China is the aging of the population. It is predicted that the economic growth rate will start to be lower than that of the United States around 2035. He also mentioned Taiwan, because of the aging population, the per capita GDP may drop to about 30% of that of the United States.
This scholar Yi Fuxian, who was once frozen by China in the book “Empty Nest: China’s Family Planning in a Wrong Way” published in 2007, is currently studying issues related to Chinese population in the United States. His work has also been criticized. Former White House official Ryan Hass quoted and published “The Future of U.S. China Policy-Suggestions to the Biden Administration.”
The Chinese scholar said in November last year (2020) that China’s total fertility rate was already below the replacement level in 1991, because the data has been wrong for many years, leading to many wrong decisions. When he was interviewed by the Voice of America, he pointed out that American scholars rarely analyze the Chinese population, because China’s data is flooded with water. Once the population figures are exaggerated, the estimates including labor force, consumption power, productivity and other data are also wrong.
Yi Fuxian said that China’s rise is dependent on population, but the Chinese labor force began to decline around 2014. He saw that the United States encourages fertility and believes that even if China can stabilize the fertility rate of 1.2, China will reach 56 years of age by 2050. The United States is 44 years old. It is self-evident that the sustainability of the United States and China prevails.
China’s economy has fallen from 9.6% in 2011, and has fallen to 6.1% in 2019. Yi Fuxian also warned Taiwan, saying that the gap between Taiwan and South Korea and the United States in the past has been narrowing, but after 2011, Taiwan’s per capita GDP has been fixed at 42% of the United States, and it will not move. If the population problem is not resolved, the per capita income level of the two countries may be Will continue to fall below 30% of the United States.
A VOA reporter asked about the role of robots. Yi Fuxian pointed out that robots do not consume, and consumption is the core force of economic growth. Reducing consumption will reduce demand.
Not only China, but Yi Fuxian gave examples of Europe and Japan, saying that the gap between these countries and regions has been widened by the United States due to the aging population. He said that aging is a gray rhino for China, while the Wuhan pneumonia epidemic is a black swan for the United States. The black swan is short-lived, and the gray rhino is long and cannot escape.
Yi Fuxian said that China’s rise is dependent on population, but the Chinese labor force began to decline around 2014. He saw that the United States encourages fertility and believes that even if China can stabilize the fertility rate of 1.2, China will reach 56 years of age by 2050. The United States is 44 years old. It is self-evident that the sustainability of the United States and China prevails.
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