According to experts quoted by the Chinese press, “China’s economic growth in the last quarter of 2020 is expected to equal pre-COVID-19 levels”, and “Beijing should step up efforts to help companies still in distress and promote a more balanced recovery.”
In 2020, the Chinese economy has been resilient and stable in the face of the emergence of the Covid-19 pandemic. The 4th quarter economic growth could be around 6%, the level seen in the last quarter of 2019, before the COVID-19 epidemic nationwide.
Chinese experts, cited by the CIIE, expected the Chinese economy to grow by more than 2% in 2020, thanks to a pickup in investment and strong exports, with full-year GDP exceeding for the first time 100,000 billion yuan (13,000 billion euros).
“The Chinese economy continues to recover rapidly from the pandemic, aided by a major containment effort and swift policy measures to mitigate the impact of the crisis”, said the board of directors of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
According to Xinhua News Agency, several factors are expected to influence growth in 2021: the decline of the pandemic, the normalization of China’s unconventional measures, the transformation and adjustment of China’s development strategy, as well as the gradual rise of a new internal dynamic.
In the first three quarters of 2020, Chinese GDP reached 72,270 billion yuan (9,165 billion euros), representing growth of 0.7% year-on-year on the basis of comparable prices. GDP fell 6.8% in the 1st quarter, before rising to 3.2% in the 2nd quarter and then 4.9% in the 3rd quarter.
Liu Yuanchun, vice president of Renmin University of China, said “China’s achievements in combating the pandemic and the focus on economic recovery have demonstrated China’s institutional advantage and economic resilience, laying a good foundation for entering the 14th Five-Year Plan period (2021- 25) ”.
According to experts, “A GDP growth figure reaching pre-Covid-19 levels does not mean a full economic recovery, however, as hard-hit sectors continue to come under pressure, especially small manufacturers and service providers.”
For Iris Pang, chief economist for China at the Dutch bank ING, “It is too early to conclude that this is a complete recovery”, because external demand “Has not fully recovered and could weigh on China’s industrial production”, especially for small manufacturers, and industries related to international travel are still in a difficult situation.
Experts believe that to promote a more balanced recovery and ensure that development achievements are widely shared by the people, China should make employment stabilization the top political priority this year and roll out more plans. to help small businesses.
China’s economy is expected to grow 8.2 percent annually in 2021, said Wang Tao, chief economist for China at UBS World Investment Bank, which will mark a jump of around 2.1 percent for the whole of 2020 to about 6% in the fourth quarter of 2020.
