Boost for Chinese growth: GDP jumped 3.2% in the second quarter, after posting its worst historical result at the start of the year, when the Covid-19 epidemic paralyzed the country .
Although questionable, the official figure of Chinese GDP, announced Thursday by the National Bureau of Statistics (BNS), is still closely scrutinized given the country’s weight in the global economy.
Its increase from April to June is more pronounced than the forecasts of a group of analysts polled by AFP (+ 1.3%).
China, where the virus appeared in December before spreading to the rest of the world, is the first country to have revived its activity and therefore appears as a barometer for the expected recovery of the world economy.
However, its quarterly growth rate remains far from the level reached in 2019 as a whole (+ 6.1%), which was already a historic low.
But it is much better than in the first quarter (-6.8%), when the Covid-19 epidemic paralyzed the country.
The Chinese stock markets were in the red at midday, however, Shanghai yielding 1.41% and Hong Kong 1.17%.
“The market probably does not believe” in the GDP figures in the second quarter, judges the economist Iris Pang, of the bank ING which also judges the official statistics “too good to be true”.
Over the entire first half, the Chinese economy “faced serious challenges posed by the Covid-19” both at home and abroad, admitted to the press a spokesperson for the BNS, Liu Aihua, deeming the activity still “under pressure”.
– Use under pressure –
Retail sales, the main indicator of consumption, thus fell again in June over one year (-1.8%).
This drop is lower than that of the previous month (-2.8%) but the figure is less good than the forecasts of analysts, who expected on average + 0.5%.
On the other hand, manufacturing production achieved its best performance last month since the start of the year, with an increase of 4.8% over one year.
But the export sector, a pillar of the Chinese economy, remains particularly vulnerable at a time when Beijing’s main trading partners are still facing the virus.
As for investment in fixed capital, it was displayed over the first six months of the year, contracting 3.1%.
The rebound in the economy is due both to “success (of the country) in managing the virus” and to a policy of support from the government, estimates the financial rating agency Fitch.
Despite the appearance of a new outbreak in Beijing last month, only one new case of contamination was registered Thursday across the country.
And to support a weakened economy, the country will drop its deficit this year to 3.6% of GDP (against 2.8% last year).
Several provinces or municipalities have launched commercial operations with coupons or reductions to encourage consumption and ultimately support employment.
Because if China is gradually recovering from the epidemic, it is at the cost of enormous economic repercussions: millions of people have lost their jobs, a factor which weighs heavily on domestic consumption.
The unemployment rate in June was 5.7%, up from 5.9% in May and an all-time high of 6.2% in February.
– Poverty and floods –
However, this figure only reflects the situation of city dwellers and de facto excludes the hundreds of millions of migrant workers from rural areas who are also the most vulnerable to the crisis.
To make ends meet, the most vulnerable have no choice but to improvise street vendors despite the police’s retribution.
According to Chinese Premier Li Keqiang, 600 million people, nearly half the population, earn less than 1,000 yuan a month (124 euros).
To this context is added the record rains that fall around the Yangtze River basin, where almost a third of the Chinese population lives.
“The economic damage from the floods is likely to be high after thousands of buildings have been destroyed,” said Fitch.
This context, which is likely to threaten the sacrosanct “social stability”, also jeopardizes the ambitious promise of President Xi Jinping to eradicate extreme poverty in 2020.
Last month, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its growth estimate for China this year to 1%.
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