Global Cancer Deaths Projected to Surge 78% by 2050, Reaching 18 Million
GENEVA – Worldwide cancer deaths are forecast to increase by 78%, rising from 9.7 million in 2020 to approximately 18 million in 2050, according to a comprehensive study published in The Lancet Oncology. The research, analyzing data from 185 countries between 1990 and 2023, reveals a particularly alarming trend in low- and medium-income nations, where the burden of cancer is rapidly escalating alongside ongoing challenges with infectious diseases.
The projected increase underscores a critical need for preventative measures and equitable access to cancer care globally. Experts warn that the rising incidence, driven by demographic shifts and evolving risk factors, will overwhelm healthcare systems in developing countries already grappling with other significant health concerns. “The increase in cancer in low and medium income countries is an imminent disaster,” warns Meghnath Dhimal, a member of the Nepal Health Research Council, emphasizing the necessity for prevention to “be a component of policies” and for “equitable efforts for cancer control” to ensure all patients receive necessary care.
The study details a 4.4% increase in the standardized incidence rate in Spain between 1990 and 2023 (from 286.30 to 289.9 cases per 100,000 inhabitants), while the mortality rate in the country decreased by 27.9% (from 162.1 to 116.9 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants) over the same period. Globally, however, the trend is overwhelmingly upward.
Josep M. Borràs, scientific coordinator of the strategy in cancer of the National Health System and director of the PLA Director of Catalonia, highlights the complex challenge facing less developed nations. He explains that these countries “will meet the challenge of cancer when they still have other infection pathologies as the main health problem. A very complex challenge to manage.” increased investment in prevention,diagnosis,and treatment resources is crucial to mitigate the impending crisis,researchers say.
