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Can a woman win the presidency in the US? This is what the data say when Trump confronted Clinton | News Univision Elections in the USA 2020

An old conversation between Senators Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders on Monday became the subject of confrontation between two of the leading contenders in the Democratic campaign. Until now, the two candidates for the presidential nomination had maintained a sort of alliance that seems to be breaking when there are barely three weeks left for the Iowa caucus, the first of the 2020 election race.

The friction between Warren and Sanders emerged on Monday when CNN reported that, at that meeting in December 2018, the senator from Vermont suggested to his contender that a woman could not reach the White House in this year’s elections, in which President Donald Trump aspires to re-election. Quickly, Sanders strongly denied that he had pronounced such a thing.

“It is sad that, three weeks before the Iowa caucus and one year after that private conversation, officials who were not at the meeting lie about what happened … What if I think a woman can win in 2020? Of course! After all, Hillary Clinton surpassed Donald Trump by three million votes in 2016, “Sanders defended himself by referring to the total popular vote recorded in the last presidential election.

Initially, people from the Warren team refrained from commenting on the press reports. However, hours later, Warren herself acknowledged in a statement that they both addressed that issue at their meeting.

“One of the issues we touched on was what could happen if the Democrats nominate a woman. I thought a woman can win. He disagreed,” said a short Warren, who added that he will not discuss the issue anymore because there are more things he has in common with Sanders that differentiate them.

The newspaper The New York Times, one of the media that first reported the issue, spoke with people who were familiar with the meeting between Warren and Sanders, who explained that the intention of the senator for Vermont was to emphasize the fact that, according to him, President Donald Trump will appeal to sexism during the contest and that this could prevent a woman from achieving the presidency.

It is true that Trump and his sexist rhetoric caused great irritation in the past contest, such as when he was heard boasting in an audio of having groped women without his consent ( here you can read the full transcript of the video). However, it is difficult to specify how this may or may not have influenced the vote in these elections, especially that of women.

To have an x-ray of how the vote was that year we reviewed the key findings of an analysis by Pew Research Center:

The analysis center found that the gender gap was “particularly wide among validated voters under 50”. In that group, Pew said, 63% of women favored Clinton, the first woman to win the presidential nomination for one of the big parties in the United States, compared to 43% of the men who chose her.

When assessing how those who are over 50 voted, the gap is not as significant: 48% of women gave Clinton their vote, while 40% of men did the same.

(The percentage of black women who voted for Trump is 0 because it is not a representative number)

A significant margin, Pew said, could be seen in the preferences of white voters with a university degree and those who do not.

Whites who completed a university degree represent 30% of voters validated by Pew. Among them, 55% opted for Clinton, while 38% opted for Trump.

A very different picture occurred among whites who did not finish college, who represent 44% of the voters. In that group, 64% preferred Trump, compared to 28% who decided on Clinton.

When one looks at the results according to the religious affiliation of the electors, it is found that both Protestants and Catholics, in general, favored Trump. 56% of Protestants voted for the employer, compared to 39% who did it for Clinton; while 52% of Catholics favored Trump, against 44% who decided on Clinton.

However, Hispanic Catholics overwhelmingly favored Clinton, as did black Protestants, reflecting a marked racial division at the time of casting the vote. The same happened with voters without affiliation.

Note: Pew Research Center made its analysis taking into account 3,014 validated voters in the 2016 general elections. Validated voters are those that appear within any of five voter databases. Pew also conducted a post-election survey between November 29 and December 12, 2016, excluding those who did not want to respond or reported having voted for a candidate other than Trump, Clinton, Johnson or Stein. Whites and blacks include only those who are not Hispanic.

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