Bukalapak Stock Jumps First, Falls Later

Jakarta, CNN Indonesia

Market enthusiasm for supply share prime (IPO) PT Bukalapak.com Tbk (BUKA) is arguably high since the company announced its floor action in Indonesia Indonesia stock exchange (IDX) last July.

The proof is that the IPO, which is claimed to have set the largest record in history, is indeed able to reap fresh funds of up to Rp. 22 trillion from the public.

In fact, when the floor, BUKA still recorded a loss. The company’s prospectus reveals that losses have occurred over the past three years. Namely, IDR 2.24 trillion in 2018, IDR 2.79 trillion in 2019, and IDR 1.35 trillion last year.

The loss was caused by the company’s intensive promotion and marketing. Please understand that startups with a capitalization of more than US$1 or unicorns are indeed known to like to ‘burn money’ in business competition.

In 2020, for example, BUKA’s marketing and sales expenses exceed the company’s revenue. It was noted that the marketing expense at that time was Rp. 1.51 trillion. Meanwhile, its revenue is only Rp. 1.35 trillion.

In terms of assets, BUKA posted IDR 2.59 trillion at the end of 2020. Then, the total debt was IDR 985.82 billion with equity of IDR 1.67 trillion. In the same period, the cash value of BUKA was recorded at Rp1.48 trillion.

Despite showing good performance at the beginning of the IPO to the point of touching the top auto reject (ARA), in the last few days, OPEN has started to break down and investors have released it. On the first day of its IPO, Friday (6/8), BUKA skyrocketed almost 25 percent from its IPO level of 850.

Then, on Monday (9/8), BUKA had strengthened strongly, but the stock consistently fell and ended up rising 4.72 percent. After those first two days, OPEN plummeted.

On Tuesday (10/8), OPEN fell 6.76 percent to 1,035 from its peak at 1,325. Stocks fell again on Thursday (12/8), with a decline of 6.76 percent and perched at position 965.

In total, since taking the floor, foreigners have recorded net sales of IDR 2.02 trillion.

In response to this, LBP Institute Founder Lucky Bayu Purnomo said it was natural for new shares on the exchange to fluctuate, especially for stocks whose fair price was difficult to measure, such as technology companies.

It’s been almost a week since going on the stock exchange, Lucky assesses that the market has tested the OPEN price. From the appreciation obtained, according to him, BUKA is considered expensive at its peak price, 1,325.

Because of this, the price continued to decline to the current 900s level. Based on the movement of OPEN for the past few days, the fair price of the company’s shares is around 950-1,000 per share. Above 1,000, he called the stock less attractive to collect.

Although it is predicted that he will follow Wall Street’s lead with the dominance of the technology sector, at this time, Lucky sees investors still referring to the real performance of companies that are currently still losing money.

“Open at the peak price is too expensive, the water testing is done and that explains the expensive price. Incidentally, the sentiment is negative in the market so the index is corrected,” he told CNNIndonesia.com, Thursday (12/8).

In the short term, Lucky projects that the price of OPEN will not be far from the agreed IPO price, which is 850. Apart from the fundamentals, he said there is also the mentality of investors who want to make quick profits.

Most of those who buy BUKA are not long-term investors and do not make BUKA an investment object in the future. They, according to Lucky, tend to take the opportunity to withdraw money when the price is far above the IPO.

As for the long-term prospects, Lucky said that BUKA had two big homeworks waiting for them. First, BUKA must improve the company’s performance after receiving an injection of public funds.

Second, BUKA must strengthen its position from the threat of other unicorn stocks that will also be listed on the stock exchange. BUKA must be able to maintain its position as a ‘sexy’ stock if it doesn’t want investors’ funds to run to other unicorns.

It is said that there are several startups that will follow BUKA mejeng on the domestic stock exchange, such as Ruangguru, Traveloka and GoTo.

Lucky said that with the current situation, OPEN should not be passive and must aggressively conduct public exposes and corporate actions to attract investors’ attention. The public expose aims to reveal the company’s prospects and plans in the future to convince investors not to sell their shares.

He said the IDX must immediately release unicorns or other startups on the stock exchange board as competitors or comparisons to OPEN. If not, he judged that it would be difficult to measure the performance of OPEN.

“For those who are concerned with amounts above 30 percent (above the IPO), like it or not, they have to make it an object of long-term investment. Territory cut loss of 7 percent, that’s tolerance,” suggested Lucky.

MNC Sekuritas analyst Herditya Wicaksana said BUKA’s performance for the first 4 days was depressed by foreign sales which reached Rp2.1 trillion. On the other hand, he said there was a positive sentiment from the entry sovereign wealth fund (SWF) from Singapore, GIC Private Limited, as the investor of BUKA.

According to Herditya, the decline in stock prices is purely a market mechanism caused by profit taking. “We estimate that the decline in prices from OPEN itself is a market mechanism where action is expected profit taking, he added.

He admitted that it is difficult to make projections about issuers. This is because the OPEN technical indicator has not yet been formed. However, he said there were early indications that the OPEN correction was relatively limited.

He advised investors to pay close attention to the trading volume of OPEN in the short term. “Better wait and see first, “he added.

He believes the technology sector still has a positive trend going forward, along with technological developments coupled with changes in shopping trends from conventional to online.

[Gambas:Video CNN]

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