Key Takeaways from teh Article: china’s Economic Outlook for the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030)
This article, featuring insights from economists Zhao Wei and Tao Chuan, outlines the expected economic trajectory for China during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, especially focusing on 2026. Here’s a breakdown of the key points:
1. Accelerated Policy Implementation:
* The 15th Five-Year Plan will see a speeding up of both development and reform initiatives, building on the groundwork laid during the 14th Plan.
* over 300 reform tasks outlined at the Third Plenary Session of the 20th central Commitee will continue to be implemented.
2.”Atypical Recovery” in 2026 (Zhao Wei):
* China is expected to experience an “atypical recovery” in 2026, differing from traditional cyclical recoveries.
* Moderate volume growth will be accompanied by significant price recovery, driving profit betterment and economic vitality.
* This recovery will be fueled by:
* Dividends from accelerated reform and development.
* Lagged effects of policies launched after September 2024, specifically those focused on boosting domestic demand and reducing “rat race” competition.
* Structural differentiation will be a key characteristic, with varying recovery rates across industries and companies.
3. Three Key Areas of Focus for the 15th Five-Year Plan (Tao Chuan):
* Industry: Leveraging the “AI +” Action Plan to develop vertical large models and scenario-based applications, shifting from old to new growth drivers. Emphasis on translating technological advancements into practical industrial applications.
* Technology: Building on existing strengths in Chinese technology companies, focusing on industrial empowerment – applying technology to drive industrial growth.
* People’s Livelihoods & Consumption: A shift in investment focus from tangible assets to people, prioritizing areas like elderly care, childcare, and education to strengthen the social security system and improve quality of life.
In essence, the article paints a picture of a China focused on quality growth, driven by technological innovation, internal demand, and improved social welfare, rather than solely relying on large-scale investment and export-led expansion. The recovery in 2026 is expected to be more nuanced and profit-driven than a traditional boom.
