British scientists predict a sharp decline in cases of COVID-19 in the winter – Diseases

  • October 25, 2021

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  • The number of cases of coronavirus infection in the United Kingdom will decline sharply in the coming winter months even without the introduction of restrictions on the so-called Plan B of the government in London, reports the British daily The Telegraph, quoted by “Focus”, citing forecasts of experts.

    According to the newspaper, the government is expected to abandon Plan B, which includes the mandatory wearing of masks indoors, work from home and the introduction of vaccination passports, after reviewing the forecasts of several expert groups that envisage reducing the incidence. within a few weeks.

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    In particular, a study by researchers at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine suggests that even without tightening restrictions, the rate of COVID-19 infection will soon peak and fall sharply in winter.

    Unpublished studies that have been submitted to the UK government also show an impending decline in morbidity. The number of infections is expected to drop to about 5,000 a day by Christmas.

    According to John Edmunds, a member of the Scientific Advisory Group on Emergencies (SAGE), which is tasked with advising the government on coronavirus control and a spokesman for the Pandemic Influenza Modeling Research Group (SPI-M), their model shows that the decline in morbidity will occur in the autumn.

    “However, the model also suggests that a new increase in morbidity may begin in the spring due to a combination of weakened immunity and an increase in the number of contacts,” the expert warned.

    Much of the current wave of coronavirus in the UK is due to high levels of morbidity among children, recalls The Telegraph. However, health advisers to the British government expect that childhood morbidity will soon decrease due to increased immunity from vaccinations.

    The UK is considering compulsory vaccination in national health care

    However, calls for the introduction of Plan B are increasingly being heard, as more than 50,000 cases of infection per day were reported last week and the number of hospitalizations rose to more than 1,000 per day.

    However, Vaccine Secretary Maggie Trope noted that Plan A “works”, adding that the country “is where it needs to be”. On Sunday, when coronavirus cases fell below 40,000 for the first time in 12 days and deaths fell to 72, Finance Minister Rishi Sunak ruled out further restrictions.

    “We are monitoring the situation, but at the moment the data do not show that we need to move to Plan B immediately,” the politician said in an interview with British television.

    According to Paul Hunter, a professor of medicine, “the government is doing the right thing” because Plan B will not prevent a new outbreak of coronavirus, but will only delay its appearance, which is not so important if the UK is expected to have the lowest number cases from late May to early June.

    “If so, then the question of whether we should introduce new restrictions is irrelevant. You don’t have to and the government is doing the right thing. Eventually, COVID-19 will become another common cause of the common cold. “Once you’ve been vaccinated and you’ve been sick several times, the disease will almost always be asymptomatic or with cold-like symptoms,” Hunter was quoted as saying by The Telegraph.

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    Theodora Alexandrova


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