Amendments to the Constitution, initiated by the President of Russia and weakening his role in governing the country, can only be Plan B to retain Vladimir Putin in power after his term expires in 2024, writes Bloomberg, citing sources.
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According to two Kremlin officials, Plan A, which allowed Putin to remain in power after 2024, failed. It consisted in persuading Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko to create a superpower by uniting Russia and Belarus, sources said. According to them, Putin discussed plan A with Lukashenko a month before January 15, when he delivered a message to the Federal Assembly and proposed amending the Constitution.
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The absorption of Belarus by Russia would allow Putin to circumvent the limitations of the presidential term, he would become the leader of the new “Union State”. Lukashenko, who was once a supporter of the merger, is now categorically against such an idea, sources close to the Kremlin say. The idea of uniting the two countries was first discussed in 1999 by Lukashenko and then-President of Russia Boris Yeltsin.
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Lukashenko is now paying for the refusal, writes Bloomberg: Russia does not agree to supply oil to Belarus on favorable terms. Cheap oil is the “vital foundation of the Belarusian economy,” as the country purchases from Russia, processes, and then exports. In January, Russian oil supplies to Belarus fell by three quarters, Kremlin sources said. Deliveries may cease altogether if Lukashenko does not allow the Belarusian refineries to buy Russian oil at market prices, they say.
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“Putin sees himself as a world leader, and it’s very difficult for him to dissociate himself from the role of president,” Gleb Pavlovsky quotes Bloomberg (he worked as an adviser to the Kremlin from 2000 to 2011). According to him, despite the fact that amendments to the Constitution may give Putin some control, the role of the head of the strengthened State Council of the united country is the best option, Pavlovsky said.
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On December 24, 2019, Lukashenko, in an interview with Ekho Moskvy radio station, said that Putin once offered him a job in parliament in Moscow, subject to the unification of countries. But, according to the Belarusian leader, he abandoned such an idea. “I am not participating in this and I will never participate. I told this to your president. I don’t need anyone to give me a post in the Russian parliament, even if they convict me and handcuff me there! Never!” – said Lukashenko.
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