How long will it take to clear the Ever Given from the Suez Canal? The question still arises this Friday, four days after this giant freighter 400 meters long and 220,000 tons got in the way of the canal, blocking navigation. Dozens of transport ships have been stranded since then. The accident could therefore have serious economic consequences, particularly in Europe, but also in Asia.
Capital importance of maritime trade
Indeed, the Suez Canal connects the two continents. It had been built for this as early as 1859, to have to avoid bypassing all of Africa.
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Since then, world trade and Asian exports of goods of all kinds have continued to develop. Nineteen thousand ships each year use this canal located in the east of Egypt, which represents between ten and twelve percent of world trade.
More than fifty ships pass, on average, every day on the canal
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“It is an absolutely essential element of our modern life”, confirms Rose George, author of a book on the international shipping industry. “This webcam by which I am speaking to you would not have reached me without modern shipping and the computer. And pretty much whatever is on my desk, because shipping still brings us 90% of everything. We are absolutely fundamentally dependent on it. “
Impact on oil prices
The blockage, which we do not know how long it will last, could have significant consequences if it lasts. On Wednesday, helped by speculation, oil prices already rose a few percent before falling again.
But if the boat is not cleared by Sunday evening, as the Egyptian presidency assures us, then the consequences could be more dramatic, says Sal Mercogliano, a historian specializing in maritime history at Campbell University in the United States. United. “What you’re going to see very quickly in Europe already is escalating fuel costs. You see tankers stacked south of the canal right now that can’t get through,” he recounts.
Sal Mercogliano predicts rising costs of fuel, commodities and merchandise. “But the most important thing is the manufacturing, the production plans”, he explains.
The Ever Given blocked on the canal weighs more than 220,000 tons
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“So if you are a BMW plant in Germany and you have components coming from Asia, you have what is on the shelf right now, but if the deliveries do not continue it can go all the way to the closure of manufacturing plants “. The historian therefore fears impacts in Europe and Asia, or even a contraction of the economies of the two continents if the blockage continues.
To avoid this, carriers – including the German Hapag-Lloyd – have already indicated Thursday that they plan to divert their ships and pass through the Cape of Good Hope in South Africa. This would mean a detour of 9,000 kilometers and 10 additional days of travel around the African continent. Egypt also has a lot to lose: last year, the Suez Canal Authority recorded a turnover of 5.6 billion dollars for the whole year.
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