(CNN) — Joe Biden’s advantage over Donald Trump among registered voters has dropped significantly since June, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS, even as the former vice president maintains a lead over the current president on several important issues and his choice of California Sen. Kamala Harris as a running mate garners rave reviews.
And on the eve of party conventions, the majority of voters (53%) are “extremely excited” to vote in this year’s election, a new record in CNN polls in presidential election cycles since 2003.
Overall, 50% of registered voters support the Biden-Harris ballot, while 46% say they support Trump and Pence, right on the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. Among the 72% of voters who say they are extremely or very excited about voting this fall, Biden’s lead over Trump widens from 53% to 46%. However, it is more limited among voters living in the states that will have the greatest impact on the electoral college this fall.
In 15 decisive states, the poll finds that Biden has the support of 49% of registered voters, while Trump reaches 48%.
The group of states on the battlefield in this poll includes more than Trump won in 2016 (10) than Hillary Clinton won (5), reflecting the reality that the president’s campaign is more defensive than offensive. in all states. Together, however, they represent a more republican leaning playing field than the nation as a whole.
The movement in the poll among voters across the country since June is concentrated among men (they were evenly split in June, but now 56% back Trump, 40% Biden), those aged 35 to 64-year-olds (now leaning toward Trump, but leaning toward Biden in June) and independents (in June, Biden had a 52% to 41% lead, but is now a split from nearly 46% Biden to 45% Trump).
Trump has also solidified his supporters since June. While 8% of Republicans or GOP-leaning independents in June said they would back Biden, that figure is now just 4%. And the president has increased his support among conservatives from 76% to 85%.
But the poll suggests that Trump voters are slightly more likely to say they could change their minds by November (12% say so) than Biden supporters (7%).
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More voters say their choice of candidate will go to Trump than to Biden. Almost 6 out of 10 say they support their candidate because of their vision of Trump (29% say their vote for Biden is more to oppose Trump, 30% say they vote for Trump), while only the 32% say that Biden is the deciding factor (19% vote for Biden, 13% vote to oppose him).
Overall, 54% disapprove of the way Trump is handling his job as president and 42% approve. That’s a rebound from June, and almost on par with Trump’s ratings from earlier this year. It still puts the president near the bottom of a list of historic approval ratings for presidents seeking reelection just before their nominating conventions. Trump lands ahead of Jimmy Carter (33% approval) and George HW Bush (35%), but below Barack Obama (48%), George W. Bush (49%), Bill Clinton (53%) and Ronald Reagan (54%).
Trump’s favorability rating remains under water nationally (43% view him favorably, 55% unfavorably), slightly worse than Biden’s still split 46% favorable to 47% unfavorable. Yet in the battlefield states, voter views of the two candidates are about the same: 52% have an unfavorable opinion of Biden, 54% of Trump. Both candidates are viewed favorably by 45% in those states.
Kamala Harris is seen as a good choice
Harris joins the ballot with a narrowly positive favorability rating (41% have a favorable opinion, 38% unfavorable), which is an improvement from May, when 32% of Americans said they had a positive opinion of her and 33% a negative.
Biden’s selection of Harris is rated excellent or fairly good by a majority (52%), with 57% saying it reflects favorably on Biden’s ability to make important presidential decisions. Most say they are qualified to be president if necessary (57%). And a majority, 62%, say their selection doesn’t have much of an effect on their vote. However, people of color are more likely than white people to say that their selection makes them more likely to endorse Biden (28% among people of color, 18% among whites).
Compared to other recent fellow Democrats, Harris performs well. The 30% who say their selection is excellent is higher than the percentage who said it in CNN polls of John Edwards in 2004, Biden in 2008, Joe Lieberman in 2000 or Tim Kaine in 2016. And the 57% who say they are qualified To serve as president if necessary, she is surpassed only by Biden (63%) and Al Gore in 1992 (64%).
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About the topics
The poll suggests that supporters of the two candidates live in alternate universes when it comes to the issues that are important to their vote. In general, the economy, the coronavirus, medical care, politics Arms and race relations are rated as extremely important by at least 40% of voters. But there are big differences between Biden and Trump voters on the importance of these issues.
70% of Biden voters say the coronavirus is critically important compared to 24% of Trump voters. Among Trump supporters, 57% consider the economy extremely important, while 37% of Biden’s voters agree. Most of Biden’s supporters (57% in each case) consider health care and race relations extremely important, while only 1 in 5 Trump supporters agree (20% in health care, 22% in race relations).
Biden surpasses Trump as best able to handle most of the problems probed in the survey: racial inequality in the US, the coronavirus outbreak, health care and foreign policy. Trump wins in handling the economy. Voters are sharply divided over which candidate would keep Americans safe from harm (50% say Biden would do it, 47% Trump). And more generally, Biden is seen as having “a clear plan to solve the country’s problems” (49% elect Biden over 43% Trump) and as more capable of “managing the government effectively” ( 52% Biden vs. 44% Trump).
And when it comes to these top issues, almost all Trump and Biden supporters think their man is the right man for the job. Only 1% of Biden supporters say they would trust Trump more than Biden to handle racial inequality in the US, and only 2% would trust Trump to handle the coronavirus outbreak. On the other hand, 2% of Trump voters say they would prefer Biden in the economy, and only 4% choose him in regards to the coronavirus outbreak.
Overall, Biden has the upper hand on a variety of positive traits that are often considered valuable in a run for the White House. Most say they care about people like them (53% Biden, 42% Trump), share their values (52% Biden vs. 43% Trump), and are honest and trustworthy (51% Biden vs. 40% Trump). More also say that Biden will unite the country and not divide it (55% Biden vs. 35% Trump). But in this confrontation between two septuagenarians, voters are divided over who has the stamina and the wit to be president (48% say Trump, 46% Biden).
The CNN poll was conducted by SSRS from August 12-15 among a random national sample of 1,108 adults contacted by landlines or cell phones by an interviewer. Live, including 987 registered voters. The survey also includes an oversample of residents from 15 critical states for a total subsample of 636 adults and 569 registered voters from those states. That subset was weighted according to its appropriate proportion of the general adult population of U.S. The full sample results have a sampling error margin of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points. It is 4 points among registered voters and 5.4 points for the results of registered voters in decisive states.
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