US President-elect Joe Biden lists climate change as one of his top four priorities. He can easily fulfill a number of promises. But the real work requires support from the Senate, and that is still very uncertain. He will also be busy redressing more than 100 environmental laws that were lifted or watered down under Donald Trump.
Biden’s main climate plans:
- To return to the Paris climate agreement
- Put 2 trillion dollars into renewable energy
- The US must also be CO2 neutral by 2050
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While counting the votes, the incoming US president Joe Biden reiterated his most important climate promise: we return in the Paris climate agreement. Exactly 77 days after the US officially left this international cooperation under Trump.
Will Biden live up to that promise? Yes – and that’s because it’s relatively easy. For example, the US may have withdrawn from the Paris Agreement, but has since remained a member of the UN umbrella body, the UNFCCC. And members can re-sign that agreement. The chair for the US is therefore just ready, Dutch climate envoy Marcel Beukeboom said last week NU.nl.
Biden links up with other countries and puts a spot on the horizon
The highest goal of the Paris Agreement is to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. Will the world still succeed, since we have already passed 1.1 degrees? Small chance, experts would have said two years ago. But that answer shifts to ‘it could work’.
The major condition is that global CO2 emissions must be reduced to (net) zero in the next thirty years. Last year, the EU (and the United Kingdom) set this as a goal. And recently also spoke China, Japan and South Korea expresses a similar ambition.
Biden wants to join this green wave and also set the goal for the US to become CO2 neutral by 2050. When added together, these countries account for more than half of global emissions. And more importantly, they are the largest economies. If these countries go full throttle on sustainable energy and technology for saving, electric transport and energy storage, other countries will also be drawn into this – because it creates an enormous sustainable market.
“The Washington Post calculated that Trump has weakened or lifted a total of 125 environmental laws, from the protection of endangered species to regulation of drilling companies.”
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Care 1: Biden will spend a lot of time repairing
The ultimate success of the Paris Agreement is thus in sight – if countries actually start to invest, and thus make policy on these climate goals. Can Biden deliver on those concrete steps?
The less good news is that it will also be quite difficult for the newly elected president to change course domestically. `The Washington Post calculated that Trump has weakened or lifted a total of 125 environmental laws, from the protection of endangered species to regulation of drilling companies and environmental impact assessments around infrastructure projects.
Analysts expect it could take Biden a full term of office to reinstate those environmental regulations – and then the US is really just back to square one: the point where Barack Obama left the country. And that was not exactly a point where the US was at the forefront.
Worry 2: possibly much opposition Republican Senate
Obama therefore had a problem that could also affect Biden: a Senate that is majority Republican – led by Mitch McConnell, who also managed to hold back many climate policies in Obama’s time.
If the Senate remains majority Republican, it could hold back legislative changes as well as major financial investments.
Ultimately, though, this brings us back to Biden’s predecessor, Trump, who is right in one important respect in claiming that these elections are still undecided: not the battle for the presidency, but the battle for the Senate.
In the swing state of Georgia (where Trump wants a recount), there is a good chance that Biden will win the majority, further increasing his already definitive lead in the number of electors for his presidency.
The key to Biden’s climate success lies in Georgia
But in the simultaneous Senate elections in Georgia, none of the candidates got enough votes for a seat. Residents of this state will therefore have to go to the polls again in January – with a very high stakes: if the two Senate seats go to the Republicans, they will increase their majority.
If Georgia chooses blue again, the Democrats and Republicans will both get exactly 50 seats. As the vice president also has the right to vote in the Senate, this will give Biden the opportunity to actually implement a ‘Green Deal’ in the US, an investment of nearly $ 2 trillion in ‘renewable energy and green jobs’ – with major global effects.
If this does not work, Biden is not completely paralyzed. With his ‘executive powers‘the president can implement many things, such as stricter emission standards for cars. In addition, he can support green states and cities in their local climate policies, instead of thwarting them, as his predecessor did. The difference with Trump is very big in all scenarios.
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