The 2020 legislature closed without debating the law against usury – which seeks to place maximum caps on the interest rate of bank loans – leaving the complicity of the president of the congress Mirtha Vásquez, formerly on the left, with the banks up in the air. Critics ignore that similar standards exist in all developed countries and in most of Latin America.
Thus, an annual effective cost rate (TCEA) will continue to be charged that reaches up to 150.7% on credit cards, 89.76% mortgage loans, and 42.95% vehicle loans (SBS Retasas).
On the other hand, in the 2020 financial stability report of the BCR (November) it indicates that although delinquency has grown, it does not put “the solvency” of the financial system at risk. The report points out that for this, “rescheduling” has been vital, especially in household debts, which stand at 46%, although it has been rescheduled without touching the high interest rates. When mentioning the monetary measures (lowering the interbank rate to 0.25%, Reactiva Peru, etc.), the BCR mentions the “repo” line, similar to Reactiva to reduce interest, without stating that the banks have been ignoring it.
The vast majority of rescheduling has been agreed by telephone (between the closure and the fear), limiting itself to postponing the payment of two or three monthly installments, prorating them in the following installments, adding the interest of the postponement. In the case of credit cards, only the minimum payment was fractioned and prorated, while in mortgage credit it was rescheduled up to 48 installments.
Another not minor fact is that the financial system has been closing its fist on households in the last twelve months (September 19-September 20), reducing the universe of debtors by 4% while debt has been reduced by -1.2%. Now there are five million households with a debit balance of S / 118,000 million soles, in which delinquency has grown from 4.5% to 6.2% (S / 660 million) on credit cards and consumer loans, since in Mortgage loans are almost unpaid due to fear of losing their home.
It helped to catch up, both the release of 25% of the AFPs fund and the Universal Bond, however, the core has been the retraction in private consumption of -10%, which delays the economic recovery. At the cost of sacrificing resources that were previously allocated to education and / or food, households have been sacrificing their quotas without the “November Marchers”: Elena Conterno (Intercorp), Gianfranco Ferrari (BCP), Miguel Ucelli (Scotiabank), Martín Naranjo (ASBANC), among other financial leaders, propose to lighten this burden with a reduction in interest.
Placing itself in a stress scenario due to three risk factors, such as: a second wave of covid-19 that slows down the reactivation, that investment is less, slowing down the recovery of employment and latent exchange rate volatility; the report states “if one or more of these risks materialize, the banks would face … a higher default … which would rise to 10.3% in the first quarter of 2021, reducing to 8.3% in December of the same year.” Would the backs of financial institutions support this scenario?
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