The suspended credit support program by Russia, tax maneuvers in the oil sector, and disturbing economic forecasts. These are challenges that the likely new-old Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenka will have to face in the next term of office.
–
The International Monetary Fund forecasts that the Belarusian economy will shrink by 6 percent this year. For comparison, in 2019, GDP growth was 1.2 percent, and the year before it was 3 percent.
–
In addition, there are disputes with Russia regarding oil supply conditions, which contributed to the reduction of oil imports in the first quarter of this year. With oil imports dropping to just 0.5 million tonnes – 1.5 million tonnes less than usual – Belarus’ industrial production plunged 5.8 percent year on year in January.
–
Our eastern neighbors are also worried about the gradual withdrawal of price discounts on oil purchases by Moscow. The tax maneuvers mean heavy losses for Belarusian export-oriented refineries. According to the estimates of the local government, it is as high as $ 330 million in 2019 alone. According to the plans, in 2024 Belarus will buy Russian crude oil at the same price as other countries. Currently, Minsk can count on a 17% discount.
–
WATCH TVN24 ON THE INTERNET ON TVN24 GO
–
Tense relations with Russia
Alyaksandr Lukashenka in his address to the nation at the beginning of August emphasized that Russia has always been and will be Belarus’s closest ally. In his opinion, however, unnecessarily changed “fraternal relations into partnership”.
–
He also assured that reforms are needed, but should not be violent. He presented Belarus as “the only peaceful link in Eurasia” as the whole world is under severe turbulence due to the coronavirus, economic crisis and trade wars, as well as armed conflicts.
–
According to Lukashenka, global players have used the pandemic as “a cover for the unceremonious pursuit of their interests in foreign policy and economy.” “Dependence on one or two countries puts us in a weak position,” he said, clearly referring to relations with Russia. According to him, in five years, due to trade wars, unfair prices and expensive loans, Belarus lost 9.5 billion dollars of economic growth.
–
The answer to this, he explained, was, among others, the desire to diversify the sources of raw materials. Lukashenka noted that due to oil disputes with Russia, Belarus lost 1.5 billion Belarusian rubles, or the equivalent of around 540 million euros.
–
Lukashenka said he expected economic growth of 3-4 percent in the coming years. The Reuters Agency noted that the Belarusian economy grew by an average of less than 1 percent annually between 2010 and 2020.
–