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Belarus can be disconnected from SWIFT: how will Lukashenka respond

The disconnection of Belarus from the global financial system SWIFT, which is referred to in European Parliament resolutions, will be a serious blow to the regime of the self-proclaimed president Alexander Lukashenko… But one should not expect concessions from the dictator, in particular, one should not count on the release of the detained oppositionists – Roman Protasevich, Sophia Sapieha and others.

In the context of tougher sanctions, the Lukashenka regime may drift even faster towards Russia. Because of this, the threat of losing its sovereignty will hang over Belarus.

What consequences can the sanctions against Lukashenka and his associates lead to? OBOZREVATEL.

“It is necessary to disconnect from SWIFT not Belarus, but Russia

Doctor of Law, Professor, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Ukraine, representative of our state in the UN Human Rights Council in 2006-2010 Vladimir Vasilenko OBOZREVATEL stated that such sanctions would be a powerful blow to the Lukashenka regime, but still one should not expect the dictator’s behavior to change.

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“These are very effective steps, especially the disconnection from SWIFT. This means that Belarus is actually deprived of the possibility of full-fledged economic relations with the world. Other measures are also quite serious. These are the toughest sanctions that have been proposed to be imposed on any state.“, – he stressed.

But Lukashenka is unlikely to take the steps that the European Parliament demands of him, the diplomat noted. “Lukashenka – to put it mildly, a specific head of state, the dictator who got off the rails. He is stumped. In my opinion, psychologically he is already not able to really perceive the world around… Therefore, it is unlikely that this will force him to take any radical measures to improve the situation in Belarus, “Vasilenko said.

In particular, in his opinion, the release of the detained Roman Protasevich and Sofia Sapieha should not be expected either.

Lukashenko will not make concessions and will drift towards the Russian Federation, Vasilenko is convinced.

According to the diplomat, on the one hand, sanctions of this magnitude are indeed justified, since we are talking about a regime that despises international norms. But on the other hand, they will push Lukashenka even more towards the Russian Federation. “He has nowhere to go, only Putin’s Russia can support him,” he said.

According to Vasilenko’s forecasts, Putin will take advantage of this situation: “Belarus can be absorbed by Russia“. Therefore, the diplomat believes that” it would be better for PACE to take care of sanctions against Russia. “

“Since the Russian Federation bought them with its contributions, they do not take into account what is happening there. Russia is the source of all problems in the world today.… It grossly violates the norms of international law and creates chaos in Western countries. The West does not pursue a clear policy towards Russia, and this creates a danger for the West itself. A condescending attitude towards Russia, all kinds of concessions, attempts to pacify it only whet its appetite and encourage further aggressive actions, “the diplomat is sure.

He stated that from SWIFT it is necessary to turn off Russia. “It is necessary to create conditions when Russia will not be able to use energy resources as a geopolitical weapon. Then the situation in Russia will normalize and this will automatically spread to Belarus,” Vasilenko summed up.

Russia will not be able to take Belarus for maintenance

Belarusian blogger Tatiana Martynova, commenting on the OBOZREVATEL resolution of the European Parliament, shared the consequences of sanctions for the Lukashenka regime and for ordinary citizens… “The bottom line, we will have negative consequences for the people in the short term. But if we think strategically, then it will be easier for the people to cope with this than the state“, – she said.

According to her, disconnecting from SWIFT is a process extended in time, therefore, both the regime and the people will have time to prepare. “This is not one button. As far as I know, the procedure takes up to six months. And since everyone knows that this will happen, everyone will prepare – both the regime and the people. The question is who will prepare better. I put on the people,” she said Martynov.

To get out of hell, Belarus must form a strong civil society, Martynova said.

She predicted that the people will be able to organize to solve the problem in the same way as it was during the surge in the incidence of coronavirus in the country, when “the state just threw us.” “We got together and learned how to solve this problem ourselves. I advocate any pressure on the regime, but at the same time there must be an increase in self-awareness and strengthening of civil society by overcoming these obstacles, “the blogger emphasized.

As for the prospect of liberation Protasevich and Sapieha, she said, “I I don’t think he will release them. I do not have very good forecasts on this score, because Lukashenka and any logic in one sentence do not exist. “

At the same time, Martynova did not agree with Vasilenko’s forecasts regarding the increased danger of Belarus’ absorption by Russia: “This is a standard diplomatic position, it has the right to exist. Of course, when we completely cut off the movement towards the West, it is logical that the eastern direction remains. truth in the eye: Russia has its own problems. She cannot take the whole of Belarus for maintenance“.

In this context, the blogger pointed to a momentous moment. “Russia has not yet opened its land borders, as was announced. This is a very important marker that everyone missed. They say, well, it did not open and did not open, but it gave 500 million. But excuse me, what is 500 million compared to a loss of 4 billion in 3 months? It’s laughter, “she said.

Martynova also noted that the sanctions should apply not only to Belarus, but indirectly to Russia, so that the takeover of the country would be even less profitable for the Kremlin. At the same time, according to her, it is extremely important for the civil society in Belarus to become stronger.

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