Bearish speculation – Swiss stocks in New York: This is how the short sellers position themselves at the beginning of the year

The cash Insider reports in Insider Briefing in each case pre-market of the latest observations on the Swiss market and is under @cashInsider also active on Twitter. Take a look at that too Tracker certificate on the Swiss equity favorites of cash Insider.

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I recently reported in an insider briefing that short sellers had surrendered on the New York Stock Exchange. I relied on surveys by the German bank according to which the bets against the stocks included in the broad American Russell 3000 Index had reached 2.2 percent of the total capitalization. This in turn corresponds to the lowest value ever measured.

The burned child shies away from fire in the stock exchange. And that doesn’t just apply to the stocks of American companies. Also against the representatives from the New York traded Swiss Market Index (SMI) are running pretty thin bets at the moment.

American Deposit Receipts (ADRs) from UBS only 6.5 million titles are speculated on falling prices. That is only about a third as many as in December a year ago. One of the reasons for this change is likely to be the substantially reduced fine against the big bank in France.

Something similar can be said about the speculations there FIG to say. While a year ago there were still 5.4 million ADRs against the Swiss-Swedish industrial group, recently there were only 1.9 million titles.

Not so with last year’s SMI– Tail light Swiss credit or at Novartis. With almost 10 million ADRs sold short, the market players in New York are pretty much committed to the smaller of the two major Swiss banks. That is three times as many as the year before. It seems that the billion dollar losses surrounding the collapse of the Archegos investment vehicle have not only left their mark on the share price development.

Quite sobering: Price development of the securities of Credit Suisse (red) in a 12-month comparison with those of UBS (green) (source: www.cash.ch)

Novartis also remains a whipping boy. The $ 15 billion share buyback program from the proceeds from the sale of the RochePackage so far nothing. You don’t really want to release the handbrake on the second trading line yet. In the past two weeks, the pharmaceutical company from Basel has bought shares of 20 to 40 million francs every day. If the speed remains the same, the remaining amount will last for another 446 days.

Let’s see if the short sellers allow themselves to be chased into the field. It doesn’t look like it yet, with 5.3 million ADRs speculating on falling prices in New York. A year ago there were only 4.4 million titles.

If you want to keep an eye on the buyback activities of Basler, you can do so at the second trading line (Valor number 3845941, ticker NOVNEE) do.

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For the shareholders of Zurich Insurance The year begins with a late Christmas present: The insurance group is transferring a closed life insurance portfolio in Italy to the British company GamaLife. This not only flushes around $ 200 million into the cash register, but also reduces the amount of capital tied up by $ 1.2 billion.

Allegedly, the company is also in other countries – including our northern neighbor Germany – in negotiations about comparable steps.

Like the one earlier for J. P. Morgan and today for that Berenberg Bank active insurance analyst Michael Huttner writes, the capital commitment could be reduced by more than 7 billion dollars. Funds that sooner or later could be returned to shareholders via a special dividend or a share buyback program in terms of value.

Zurich shares have had a tailwind for weeks now (source: www.cash.ch)

Huttner compares the situation of Zurich Insurance with that of Allianz from 2017, when the German rival launched a 3 billion euro share buyback program, or with that of the life insurer Swiss Life immediately before the announcement of a buy-back campaign worth one billion francs. The share price of the Allianz then increased by 22 percent within 12 months, the values ​​of Swiss Life even won 32 percent.

These statements are not entirely unselfish, the Berenberg Bank praises the shares of Zurich Insurance but for what felt like an eternity with a price target of 491.40 francs to buy.

With 7.5 billion dollars, the insurance group was able to buy back more than 11 percent of all outstanding shares at current rates and achieve a profit compression on a similar scale.

After the liberation in Italy, we now have to wait for similar steps in Germany and other countries. And with every further step, the probability of a capital repatriation worth billions increases to the shareholders – in addition to the already generous dividend, of course.

Anyway, I’m not unhappy, count the shares of Zurich Insurance on the one hand Swiss equity favorites for 2022.

The cash Insider takes in market rumors as well as strategy, industry or company studies and interprets them. Market rumors are deliberately not checked for their truthfulness. Rumors, speculation and everything that interests traders and market participants should be quickly passed on to readers. No responsibility is taken for the correctness of the content. The personal opinion of the cash insider does not have to coincide with that of the cash editorial team. The cash insider is active on the stock exchange himself. Only in this way can he achieve the market proximity necessary for this type of news. The opinions expressed do not constitute buy or sell recommendations to the readership.











































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