Citi Predicts Partial Acceptance Most Likely in BBVA‘s Sabadell Bid
A recent report from Citi indicates a 45% probability that BBVA’s public acquisition offer (OPA) for Sabadell will see acceptance levels between 30% adn 50%. The analysis also assigns a 35% chance that acceptance will exceed 50%, and a 20% chance it will fall below 30%.
Despite the offer price being approximately 2% higher then Sabadell’s current share price, “most of the investors we have spoken [to] are not clear about the final result of the offer,” according to the report.
Citi believes the most likely outcome is partial acceptance, possibly prompting BBVA to revise its minimum acceptance threshold of 50% of Sabadell’s voting share capital, lowering it to 30% or even withdrawing the offer altogether. Should acceptance be partial, BBVA would be obligated to launch a second mandatory OPA for the remaining shares, either in cash or with a cash choice, at a price deemed fair by the National Securities Market Commission (CNMV).
The report highlights that the price in a subsequent OPA “may not be lower than the highest price you have paid or agreed to pay for Sabadell’s shares during the previous 12 months,” a factor that could contribute to market uncertainty.
If BBVA achieves over 50% acceptance, the combined entity would become a major player in the Spanish market, considerably increasing its market share and rivaling current leader Caixabank.
Citi suggests that if acceptance falls below 30%, BBVA is likely to withdraw the offer. The firm remains optimistic about BBVA’s potential for profitability in the coming years.
