ANP
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NOS News•today, 06:07
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In the latest Polling Guide, the profit for the BoerBurgerBeweging has increased further. The party of Caroline van der Plas has 9 to 13 seats, against 6 to 10 over a month ago† The BBB has 1 seat in the House of Representatives.
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The BBB has been on the rise since the March elections last year, and it has been accelerating in recent months. “That is not surprising, now that nitrogen policy is playing strongly,” says political scientist Tom Louwerse, the creator of the Polling Indicator. “The BBB has a clear critical voice about this and knows how to connect most strongly with this theme.”
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Most voters draw the BBB from the VVD and from people who did not vote in last year’s elections. Indeed, according to I&O Research only 5 percent of VVD voters from March 2021 would opt for the BBB now, but in absolute numbers that is a larger group than the 18 percent of JA21 voters who would now opt for the BBB. Van der Plas’s party also attracts voters who voted for CDA, PVV or FvD in the previous elections.
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‘common sense’
Out research by Ipsos/EenVandaag shows that the main motive for voting for the BBB is dissatisfaction with government policy in general. In addition, many people believe in party leader Van der Plas. She “stands up for ordinary people”, “speaks clear language” and “uses common sense”. Her supporters also believe that she did well last week in the parliamentary debate on nitrogen policy.
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Louwerse emphasizes that the Polling Indicator is a representation of current voting intentions, and that it says little about the results of upcoming elections. Out recent political science research polls in the years 1998-2021 show that the predictive value of polls usually only exceeds the results of the previous elections in the last weeks or months before the elections. The uncertainty is even greater with new parties such as the BBB, whose support can fluctuate very strongly.
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It is also striking in the Polling Guide that of the governing parties, only the ChristenUnie is not at a loss, just as was the case for almost the entire previous government term. The VVD remains by far the largest party with 26 to 32 seats (last month 29-33), D66 is at 12 to 18 (last month 13-19), and is therefore still the second party, together with the PVV who has won 13 seats. to 17 state.
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The CDA is on 7 to 11 and the CU on 5 to 7. After D66 and the PVV, GroenLinks (10 to 14) and the PvdA (9 to 13) follow, which are about the same size and about the same size as the BBB. .
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Of the smaller parties, the SP is on 7 to 10, the Party for the Animals on 7 to 9, JA21 on 5 to 9, Volt and Forum for Democracy both on 3 to 7, the SGP on 3 to 5, Think on 2 to 4 and 50Plus and Bij1 both at 0 to 2.
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