Home » Business » Bank Audi’s weekly report: The gap widens between the black market exchange rate and the “exchange” platform amid dollar rationing

Bank Audi’s weekly report: The gap widens between the black market exchange rate and the “exchange” platform amid dollar rationing

In the light of the intensification of banking-judicial confrontations, and while Lebanese banks resumed their activities on Wednesday after a one-day strike on Monday, and in light of the government vacuum and the uncertainty surrounding the course of the presidential elections next October, and amid the crowded crises that afflict the country economically, financially and living, the financial markets witnessed This week, the Lebanese market witnessed an increase in the dollar exchange rate on the black market, while the Eurobonds market recorded some foreign demand and the stock market witnessed a slight increase in prices, according to the weekly report of Bank Audi. In the details, the dollar exchange rate broke the 32000 LBP barrier. In the parallel market this week, in light of the deterioration of banking-judicial relations and the dullness of political prospects, and after the decision of the Banque du Liban to secure only 85% of the import bill of gasoline at the price of the “exchange” platform, instead of 100% in the past, came into effect, which led to an expansion The gap between the exchange rate of the dollar in the parallel market and the price of the “exchange” platform reaches about 6 thousand pounds. As for the Eurobonds market, some demand from foreign institutions appeared, which led to a marginal increase in prices to the range of 7.38-7.63 cents per dollar, compared to 6.38-6.63 cents per dollar at the end of the previous week, amid anticipation of the reform path that the Lebanese authorities will pursue. Regarding the stock market, a slight increase in prices was recorded by 0.4%, while trading volumes decreased by 29% per week, noting that Solidere shares still account for the lion’s share of the activity.

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In the money market: The cost of cash in pounds has remained stable at 10% in the money market this week. In parallel, the latest monetary statistics issued by the Banque du Liban for the week ending on July 28, 2022 showed a remarkable expansion in resident bank deposits worth 1,617 billion pounds. This expansion is due to an increase in bank deposits resident in lira, amounting to 1,332 billion pounds, amid an increase in demand deposits in pounds, by 1,416 billion pounds, and a decline in savings deposits in pounds, by 84 billion pounds, and deposits residing in foreign currencies increased by 285 billion pounds (equivalent to 189 million pounds). dollars according to the official exchange rate of 1507.5 LBP). Accordingly, resident bank deposits have accumulated contractions of 2245 billion pounds during the first seven months of 2022, mainly as a result of a decrease in resident deposits in foreign currencies by 5810 billion pounds (equivalent to 3854 million dollars according to the official rate), while resident deposits in pounds increased by 3,564 billion lira. In parallel, the statistics showed that the volume of cash circulating outside the Banque du Liban shrank by 4 trillion pounds during the first seven months of 2022 as a result of the effects of the Central Bank of Lebanon Circular No. 161 issued and the exceptional measures taken by the Central since the beginning of 2022, which authorized Lebanese banks to purchase cash dollars from the Central Bank On the price of the Sayrafa platform against the lira in its possession and its customers.

In the treasury bond market: The Banque du Liban continued its intervention in the treasury bond market in Lebanese pounds during the seven months of 2022. Its portfolio of bonds in pounds amounted to about 63,176 billion pounds until the end of July 2022, compared to 62,220 billion pounds at the end of 2021, an increase of 956 billion pound. Hence, the latest available statistics of the public debt for the end of March 2022 show an increase in the Banque du Liban’s share of the public debt in Lebanese pounds from 62.2% at the end of 2021 to 68.1% until the end of March 2022. On the other hand, the commercial banks’ portfolio of Treasury bonds in Lebanese pounds followed a path Regressively, as the latest available statistics for the first half of 2022 show a decrease in its portfolio from 18,258 billion pounds at the end of 2021 to 15,279 billion pounds at the end of June 2022, i.e. a decrease of 2,979 billion pounds.

In the currency market: The black market for currency trading recorded a decline in the exchange rate of the lira against the dollar this week in light of the intensification of judicial-bank confrontations and the dull political prospects, and in light of the increased demand for the monetary dollar, as it began to translate into reality the effects of the Banque du Liban’s decision to secure 85% Only from the gasoline import bill on the price of the “Exchange” platform. In this context, the dollar exchange rate in the parallel market broke the 32,000 LBP barrier. To reach 32100 LBP-32150 LBP. On Friday, compared to the exchange rate of 30550 LBP-30600 LBP. At the end of the previous week, the gap between the exchange rate of the dollar in the parallel market and the price of the “exchange” platform widened. The Banque du Liban indicated that the dollar exchange rate on the Sayrafa platform ranged between 26100 LBP. 26200 LL Between August 8 and August 12, 2022 as an average of the exchange rates of transactions executed by banks and exchange institutions on the platform.

In the stock market: the stock market recorded a slight increase in prices, as indicated by the increase in the price index by 0.4%. Out of the 5 shares that were traded, the prices of 3 shares increased, while the prices of 2 shares declined. In details, the shares of “Bank Audi Ordinary” jumped by 8.4% to $1.55, followed by “Solideer A” shares by +0.5% to $59.90, and “Solidere B” shares by +0.2% to $58.65. On the other hand, “Holcim Lebanon” prices decreased by 4.5% per week, to reach about $27.22, so the shares of “BLOM Ordinary Bank” increased by -1.7% to $2.85. In terms of trading volumes, the nominal trading value on the Beirut Stock Exchange decreased by 29.0% per week to reach $7.7 million, with Solidere shares taking the lion’s share of the activity by 90.1%. In this context, it is worth noting that the trading volumes on the Beirut Stock Exchange increased by 11.7% annually during the first seven months of 2022 to reach about $244 million, while the capitalized value increased by 44% between July 2021 and July 2022. Accordingly, the turnover rate of shares reached , calculated on the basis of annual trading value to market capitalization, a ratio of 2.9% in the first seven months of 2022, compared to a turnover rate of 3.7% in the first seven months of 2021.

Eurobond market: The Lebanese Eurobond market witnessed this week some demand from US investment funds, while an atmosphere of anticipation still prevails over the market regarding the challenges faced by the Lebanese authorities to complete the reforms required by the International Monetary Fund in order to reach a final agreement with the Council of Ministers. Managing the fund and securing urgent international support. In this context, government debt securities recorded a weekly increase in prices along the yield curve ranging between $0.13 and $0.38 to reach 7.38-7.63 cents per dollar, compared to 6.38-6.63 cents per dollar at the end of the previous week. On the cumulative level, sovereign bonds have recorded price contractions of about $2.38 to $2.88 since the beginning of 2022.

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