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Assessing the Likelihood of a Russian Offensive in Ukraine this Spring

Monday 01 April 2024 13:19

Photo: Colonel Janno Märk (screen video)

It is currently difficult to assess whether a Russian offensive will occur in Ukraine this spring.

This was stated by the deputy chief of staff of the Estonian division for operational work, Colonel Janno Märk, RBC-Ukraine reports with reference to ERR.

He noted that Russia has been mobilizing an average of 30 thousand people per month for a year and a half.

“These forces, of course, are not at the same level of training and equipment as at the beginning of the war. If you look at the manpower, then, apparently, Russian troops are able to maintain the current pace of the offensive, and perhaps can launch an offensive at a new direction. But it’s quite difficult to assess the likelihood of this,” Märk said.

Russian offensive

ISW analysts said that Russian troops could launch a large-scale offensive in the Donetsk direction in late spring or early summer.

However, they believe that Russian troops will likely be able to launch a coordinated large-scale offensive operation in only one operational direction due to the limitations of their own human resources and planning.

Read urgent and important messages about Russia’s war against Ukraine on the channel RBC-Ukraine on Telegram.

2024-04-01 10:19:06

#Russian #offensive #Ukraine #appreciated #Estonia

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