One of the most important swing statesFlorida is where many electors can be won. If that state goes to Joe Biden, data site FiveThirtyEight will give him a more than 99 percent chance of running for president. Conversely, if Trump wins Florida, Trump has a 40 percent chance of winning, according to the website’s calculation model.
Based on the average of the latest polls, FiveThirtyEight lists Biden in Florida favored to win. But the difference between the candidates is small: Biden is at 50.7 percent, Trump at 48.5. That difference is within the margin of error.
Andere swing states
In Pennsylvania, another important one swing state, Biden is further ahead in the polls: 52.4 percent against 46.9 for Trump. The Democrats in Pennsylvania have an 86 percent chance of winning, according to FiveThirtyEight.
Also in the important states Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina and Wisconsin lead Biden in the poll mean. The biggest difference is in Michigan: 53.5 percent for Biden against 45.4 for Trump. In the other three states, the lead is limited to a few percentage points and the difference is within the margin of error.
Will Biden become president?
In general, the closer the elections get, the better the polls can predict who will win. If Biden takes the lead so shortly before election day, won’t he just run for president? No. A candidate leading the polls can also lose the race, as happened with Hillary Clinton in 2016.
It is therefore important to put the polls in perspective and to keep in mind that it is not about predictions, but about probability calculations. That’s why pollsters and analysts call Joe Biden favored to win, but certainly not yet the winner of the American election. To find out, you have to wait until November 3.