Since the start of the pandemic, many hypotheses have circulated around the origins of the Covid but many unknowns remain. Exploited by conspiracy and disinformation, they are complicated by major geopolitical issues.
Determining how the virus got to humans is seen as crucial in trying to prevent the next pandemic. Different tracks, shrouded in mystery but also geopolitical issues, are discussed.
Animals
Very quickly, scientists pointed to the bat but estimated that Sars-CoV-2 must have passed through another species before reaching humans. The pangolin, which has thus become a “star” in spite of itself, has been suspected: it is one of the species of wild animals sold in the Wuhan market to which most of the first known cases of Covid-19 are linked. To date, however, no certainty.
A joint survey of WHO experts and Chinese scientists sent to the site in January 2021 was responsible for clarifying the question of origins but did not determine this missing link. Other animals have been mentioned, such as the mink or the badger-ferret.
The fabricated virus theory
From the start, theories emerged claiming that the virus would not have been transmitted to humans naturally but would have been manufactured and / or would have escaped from a laboratory in Wuhan, which Beijing denies. The idea of a leak was widely relayed on social networks and by former US President Donald Trump. This thesis has given rise to variations, saying that the virus would even have been manufactured and distributed voluntarily.
Countless internet publications have claimed to have “evidence” that Sars-CoV-2 was manufactured and even patented. In reality, these patents relate to research on other coronaviruses. Very widespread also, the idea of a virus containing pieces of other pathogens. A hypothesis rejected by many scientists, who explain that genetic manipulations would be visible in the genome of Sars-CoV-2.
Prof. Olivier Schwartz, from the Pasteur Institute, describes “Completely unfounded” “the conspiracy theories saying that in the genome of the coronavirus, there are other sequences of other viruses, such as HIV, and that this is proof of manipulation”.
To date, there is no evidence of manipulation or manufacture, say scientists and authorities.
The lab leak
The thesis of a natural virus – taken from a bat for example – then escaped from a laboratory has been relaunched for several weeks. Even though it is extremely difficult to verify and is not supported by new evidence, calls are increasing for further investigation.
The survey by WHO and Chinese scientists judged the hypothesis “Extremely unlikely”, but the head of the WHO Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus has nevertheless called for a new investigation into this possibility and relayed the difficulties of international experts to investigate on the ground. Many Western countries have followed suit.
In mid-May, around fifteen experts also called, in an article published in the journal Science, to investigate the “lab” hypothesis. Theories of animal or accidental origin in the laboratory “Both remain viable” more “They were not given fair consideration”, they regretted.
For the American immunologist and White House adviser Anthony Fauci, he “Must continue the investigation” because even if “Many of us think it’s more likely that it’s a natural event (…) we don’t have a 100% answer.”
To date, there is no evidence supporting the thesis of the leak but “As long as the intermediate host has not been found, this hypothesis (…) cannot be ruled out”, CNRS virologist Etienne Decroly already estimated at the end of 2020. “There is not a new factual element which tilts the scales one way or another”, again, for his part Olivier Schwartz, while recalling that the transmission “Natural” is here “More plausible”.
Diplomacy and geopolitics
The subject is all the more thorny since it is involved in geopolitical issues, in particular between Beijing and Washington, which have every interest in identifying each other as responsible for the crisis. Whether it is the origin of the Covid, the moment when it chose to give the alert to the WHO or more generally its management of the first times of the epidemic, China is accused of concealment by the countries Westerners. The WHO also complained on Friday May 28, 2021 of the many political interference on the subject.
And it is against a backdrop of strong diplomatic tensions with China that Donald Trump affirmed in the spring of 2020 that the virus had escaped from a laboratory in Wuhan. Beijing had counter-attacked by evoking the thesis of a… American laboratory.
In January 2021, just before the former president’s departure, US intelligence said researchers in Wuhan had had “Compatible symptoms” with the Covid – but also with those of a “Seasonal infection” classic – before December 2019.
In mid-April, officials confirmed that the hypothesis was not ruled out, without mentioning any new evidence or elements: the “Intelligence does not know exactly where, when, or how the Covid-19 virus was initially transmitted”, according to intelligence director Avril Haines, mentioning the “Two theories”, natural and accidental. “We are there”, she added.
Last week, US President Joe Biden gave intelligence three months to deliver its findings. Even if, for him, the impossibility of going on the ground at the beginning of 2020 “Will always hinder any investigation”.
Nothing says that we will find the answer, indeed think many experts. “The introduction of a new virus into the human population is one of the greatest mysteries that an epidemiologist can hope to unravel”, judge the WHO.
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