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On the eve of the last European Council, in the freezing plenary of the Bundestag restored by Norman Foster, Angela Merkel says in a calm voice that “anti-democratic forces are waiting only for the economic crisis to exploit it politically”. A provocative applause rises from the benches on the far right. She turns around a little and without smiling hisses that apparently someone feels called into question. Silence, go on.
The chancellor knows that the agenda of the German EU presidency for the next six months is crucial for the future of Europe. But before getting into the technicalities dear to her and the solutions to be propitiated by the end of the year, Angela Merkel sets a clear premise: from the very hard blow dealt more or less to everyone from Covid-19 we get up with the revival of the European Union. Better therefore to play cards face up against the enemies of the European project and frustrate the hopes of the concerned prophets of doom. The message is for the sovereigns in all European countries, not only for the unpresentable AfD.
Waiting for the Germans in Brussels there are two fundamental steps, first of all the definition of EU interventions to contain the economic impact of the pandemic and then the conclusion of the negotiation for Brexit. The European structure for the coming years will depend on the outcome of the two events, perhaps its very survival. He will not keep up and those who, like Italy, have an interest in making the most of the Union side will have to close ranks and quickly jump on their own shadows and untie some inexplicable and penalizing domestic knots as soon as possible. It is necessary to overcome the hesitation on the Mes – caused by the ideology of the refusal in which someone has become entangled – by making use of the documented reasons of those who want to use that tool as well.
Things already said and repeated, the novelty is however that, after the Franco-German turn and the Commission’s proposals of the past few weeks, in the new allocation of the Community budget there will be two thousand (instead of a thousand) billion Euros and, for the first time, a joint guarantee for the debt of the individual member countries. Then it may be useful to remember that in the buildings of the Schuman rond-point the question often asked of the Italians is: “But what exactly do you want?”. The answers depend on us, not on others.
On July 17th and 18th, when the leaders of the Twenty-seven meet in person in the Council, the definitive size of the cake to be divided should be decided. Berlin has staked its image, it has an interest in overcoming residual resistance. Of the four so-called frugalists, Austria could come to milder advice both on the push of the Greens who support the Kurz government, and because it is reassured by reasonable conditionality; Sweden could align, dented by an unhappy management of the health emergency; Denmark, satisfy with a rebate to negotiate. The rigidity of the Netherlands, fueled by the upcoming electoral deadline, remains to be overcome. The game is too important for Angela Merkel – “our insurance policy”, for an Italian insider – not to use her influence on the Hague. However, firm negotiation for a convenient allocation of resources in the multiannual financial framework 2021-2027 will still be needed later.
If post-Covid and Brexit are its cornerstones, the German presidency will naturally also look to the United States, with the awareness of how difficult it is to work with the current administration for a necessary, new multilateralism; to Russia, with the bitterness of having to dialogue with a partner as important as she is open-minded: the sentimental relationship of the chancellor, who learned Russian and as a teenager bought her first Beatles album in Moscow; to China, an essential reality for the economic relationships established for decades and for the global geo-politics but also to be called to respect shared rules and practices.
Today, coinciding with the 75th birthday of the CDU, born on June 26, 1945, which Merkel brought back with confidence to the glories of 40% of the votes, Germany has the credentials for an EU presidency that could leave the sign. Italy has an important role in your project, it will be good to take advantage of it.
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