(CNN) – The narrative seemed definite: after a brief increase in public support for President Donald Trump in the early days of the United States against him coronavirus, their approval numbers had been re-established around 40.
True? True.
Except that in the last follow-up survey out of every two weeks of Gallup, Trump’s job approval has returned to 49%, matching the highest he has had, while his disapproval is 47%.
That marks a 6-point improvement in Trump’s approval figures from Gallup’s latest follow-up poll. And that improvement comes exclusively from independents: 47% of whom now approve of the job Trump is doing, the best that has gone for him among that group in Gallup polls. (It had 38% approval among independents according to the latest Gallup poll.)
As Gallup’s Jeffrey M. Jones noticed of the findings:
“During his 13th term in office, which spanned from January 20 to April 19, he averaged 47% approval of his work. That’s four percentage points better than his previous quarters: 43% during the tenth (April 20-July 19, 2019) and twelfth (October 20, 2019 – January 19, 2020) in office. ”
It is worth mentioning here that it is entirely possible that this most recent Gallup poll is simply an outlier in the midst of broader public opinion about Trump. In fact, of the last ten surveys who asked a question about presidential approval, only Gallup shows Trump’s approval higher than his disapproval. In general, the average Real Clear Politics polls It shows that Trump’s disapproval is 6 points greater than his approval.
READ: Analysis: Trump can’t get the United States back to normal … no matter how hard he tries
A Monmouth poll released Tuesday showed Trump’s overall job rating had declined in recent months, with 43% approval and 51% disapproval.
At the same time, Gallup is Gallup, the gold standard of public opinion polls in the country. Which means it would be silly to completely discard your latest findings.
The point: Be careful with conventional wisdom. Especially when it comes to Trump.
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