Maintain the European red lines, maintain cohesion between the 27 while negotiating an agreement on the Brexi with the formidable negotiators that are the British experts… This was the complicated task that the President of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, had entrusted to Michel barnier, in the fall of 2016.
Four and a half years later, the most respected Frenchman in Brussels can say without blushing: Mission accomplished. At record speed, barely nine months to conclude a cooperation agreement ” unprecedented “, declared Michel Barnier at a press conference. Even if in this type of trade agreement, one must always remain cautious until everything has entered into force, before pronouncing a final judgment.
On two points Michel Barnier has achieved real success.
First, L’Agenda
First, he never suffered from the Brexit agenda and, on the contrary, dictated the tempo of the negotiations, very quickly setting the red lines of the Europeans and the order of the agreements to be negotiated. Namely, respect for peace in Northern Ireland, won in a fierce struggle in 1998 thanks to European mediation; the defense of the integrity of the single market, the heart of European power. Thus, at first, London and Brussels negotiated a withdrawal agreement (the divorce agreement itself) respecting these two red lines. Then the trade agreement framing the new relationship, which has just been made public.
The objective was to arrive at a free trade agreement without quotas or customs duties, mission accomplished. The conclusion of a text of 2000 pages in barely ten months would also constitute a feat for London and Brussels, especially for an agreement of this scope which generally takes years.
It took two and a half years to negotiate the withdrawal treaty sealing the British departure, concluded at the end of 2019, a text which provides legal certainty to expatriates on both sides of the Channel and provides guarantees for the maintenance of peace on the island of Ireland.
The method to preserve the unity of the 27
Secondly,, he succeeded, and it was far from obvious given the British pressure to divide the Europeans, to maintain a common position among the 27. ” Every week “, explained to us two years ago one of his closest collaborators, “We gathered at length the Sherpas (delegates by governments) from all countries to take stock at each stage”. Everyone was informed in real time. In Paris as in Warsaw. In Brussels as in Strasbourg. New in Brussels, this method applied to such a sensitive issue demonstrates that it is possible, at 27, to build agreements. Besides the agreement, the “Barnier method” could well remain as a useful precedent in the future vis-à-vis interlocutors outside the EU.
Michel Barnier has toured Europe several times and met all the leaders face-to-face, on several occasions. But also parliaments, unions, diplomats, the European Parliament. “The unity of the Twenty-Seven, it is being built”, sums up the person concerned, convinced from the start that Brexit was, in and of itself, a ‘lose-lose’, but determined to get the best deal possible under the existing conditions. The pitfalls were however numerous. On fishing in particular, which is an extremely sensitive subject in France and in six or seven other countries, but not in the whole of the bloc. The Von der Leyen – Barnier couple, with the Merkel / Macron couple behind the scenes, will have helped prevent the bloc from dividing. “The strength of the EU in this negotiation has been unity”, declared Thursday, December 24 Michel Barnier. “It was an honor to take part in this unity of Europeans”.
A long practice of the British
Paradoxically, it is therefore up to a Frenchman to take the reins of the most complex negotiations that Europe has had to conduct with the British. Michel Barnier had already, before 2016, a long experience of dialogue with London. When he was European Commissioner for the Internal Market and therefore in charge of regulating financial services (a major issue for the British), he made it a point of honor to always seek the London Accord in the agreements to be signed.
“I passed 41 laws, including 39 with the British agreement. It was my strategy, to work on compromises, to obtain their agreement because the City is the main European financial center ”, he told us. Also, when British voters decided to leave the European Union on June 23, 2016, Michel Barnier was both disappointed and worried about what he said was “a miscalculation” on the part of the British.
“There is a fear of globalization”, he explained. “The feeling of losing one’s national identity. The challenge is to explain that the European Union is more the means of controlling things rather than enduring them. Globalization is here. It’s the internet, the exchanges, the climate. The question is: how do we protect ourselves? I don’t think the English have made a good calculation for the future ”.
Why ? “They have a lot to lose. For their products, their services, for the financial center of London through which enters Europe a large part of the investments of the whole world. If London leaves the single market, many operators will organize themselves. If you put the front door outside the building, it is no longer a front door. The British will realize that this choice to be solitary will be expensive ”.
2,000 pages to peel
Four years later, the worst has been avoided twice. A brutal exit and without any agreement, a year ago. And the end of the transitional regime, December 31, 2020, without agreement. The first parachute saved the status quo in Northern Ireland, the second parachute avoids creating a Singapore at the gates of Europe.
However, the first diagnosis (there is nothing to gain from Brexit which is a loser-loser) remains. Michel Barnier, removed from the race for the presidency of the European Commission in 2019, has played his role with consistency, elegance and discretion. He even left the gossip of recent weeks – which wanted it to be avoided in the final negotiation by Ursula von der Leyen – by keeping, as a good Savoyard, the eye on the summits. To act in the interests of the European Union as a whole, because it is in this context that our future is now irremediably registered if we want to continue to influence world affairs.
From January 2021, Michel Barnier probably no longer has political ambitions in France, or even in Brussels. But he is at the disposal of the Twenty-Seven to do what he knows how to do best: unite. The reform of the European institutions would be a great project to entrust to him. There are not that many in Europe who know how to stay on this course.
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