A university research concludes that declaration of a state of alarm march 14 has achieved reduce in 79.5 % of the number of contagions potential Spain. This has benefited especially to the provinces that are more near of the main epicenters the COVID-19since the alarm state has broken the vicious circle of contagion between provinces.
The studyprepared by Luis Orea, a researcher at the Department of Economics and the Research Group OUT of the University of Oviedo, and Inmaculada Álvarez, researcher of the above-mentioned Group and the Autonomous University of Madrid, points out that the number of confirmed cases had increasedin the absence of a state of alarm, of 126,000 to 617.000 cases to date of 4 April 2020. With this measure, therefore, have avoided around 491.000 confirmed infections.
The study, published by the OEG Group in their “Economic Discussion Papers”, also shows that it would have been able to save an even greater number of infections and, consequently, of deaths, if the control measures associated with the declaration of alarm had been put in place with only a week in advance. The number of confirmed cases had been passed to 47.000fewer than half those confirmed to April 4. Such a decrease would have avoided probably the collapse of many hospitals.
In general, the results indicate that a greater populationalong with a high number of middle-aged people and with higher education contribute to advance the appearance of infections. Likewise, the researcher concludes that the start, and intensity, of the epidemics provincial depends on the international mobility, which suggests that the control measures of travelers from areas previously affected, as is the case of Italy, should have been launched long before, in line with the decisions taken in other countries.
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