Will probably come back EUR The decline after falling below the price of one dollar per euro over the summer for the first time since it was released in 2002.
As for GBP Which fell to an all-time low below $1.05 in September and then recovered, given that it could fall below the $1.20 threshold in 2023, according to Rabobank.
On the other hand, back yen In October, it fell below 150 yen to the dollar for the first time since 1990.
The year 2022 was marked by the battle of reserves Federal american vs inflation. After being adopted interest rates Core prices, at their lowest historical levels, approached zero in late 2021 American central bank It raised it in November to a range of 3.75-4%, the highest level since 2008.
multiple risks
But with growing risks slow In the US, the Federal Reserve announced it could slow the pace of interest rate hikes, allowing other currencies to strengthen against the dollar again.
Greg Daco, Chief Economic Officer at "EY Parthenon" That "The difference in interest rates could narrow in the coming months" The bank continues central European And other major financial institutions are fighting the steep price hike, according to Agence France-Presse.
But he stressed that this would not lead to a sentence "Great fix" Why "dollar it will remain a refuge".
Meanwhile, the outlook remains bleak International economy.
Francisco Pesole, a currency strategist at "Eng" That "United Kingdom AndEurozone and Japan They are all exposed to the fluctuations associated with the gas".
aroused Ukrainian crisis and the penalties imposed Fly In response to his attack, a major supply disruption Gas world, which caused a sharp rise in energy prices and thus fueled inflation as it weakened growth.
If confirmed reopen China After prolonged government quarantine measures to combat COVID-19, Foley warned the world’s second-largest economy requires power "It will intensify competition in the gas supply market natural liquefied".
The United States remains more independent due to its large natural resources.
It is another theme to monitor, according to the analyst "The end of Haruhiko Kuroda’s term" Bank presidentfor my Japanese center In the spring, like "It can give hope to adjust monetary policy" Currently very flexible Japan.
It’s inside United KingdomHe underlined that negotiations with the European Union are ongoing Ireland North can reflect negatively on GBP In case of tension.
effect on inflation
Despite its recent resurgence, it remains EUR Down 7.7 percent against the dollar year-to-date, which will make 2022 the worst year for the single European currency since 2015.
Nor the bank central European It has been hesitant in the past to flood the market with liquidity, if it was inflation Non-existent, and the weak currency gave preference to European exporters.
Now, the equation has been reversed, as Pesoli commented "coins The higher price is a tool for fighting inflationand if weak dollar Again, this will help other countries limit price hikes".
Since the Price of the raw material like oil inside Global market Determined in dollars, the price recovery currencies Against the dollar, it will have repercussions that go beyond trade with the United States.
In the United States, however, it has decreased United States currency It will have limited positive results because "exports It’s not a big part of US growth, says Joe Manimbo, an analyst at Convera Financial Services.
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Jane Foley, head of forex strategy at Rabobank, said: dollar It is probably starting to reach its ceiling and we believe this will be a long and volatile process, especially as we expect inflation to continue.”
Will probably come back EUR The decline after falling below the price of one dollar per euro over the summer for the first time since it was released in 2002.
As for GBP Which fell to an all-time low below $1.05 in September and then recovered, given that it could fall below the $1.20 threshold in 2023, according to Rabobank.
On the other hand, back yen In October, it fell below 150 yen to the dollar for the first time since 1990.
The year 2022 was marked by the battle of reserves Federal american vs inflation. After being adopted interest rates Core prices, at their lowest historical levels, approached zero in late 2021 American central bank It raised it in November to a range of 3.75-4%, the highest level since 2008.
multiple risks
But with growing risks slow In the US, the Federal Reserve announced it could slow the pace of interest rate hikes, allowing other currencies to strengthen against the dollar again.
“The interest rate differential could narrow in the coming months,” said Greg Daco, head of economics at EY Parthenon, as the bank continues to central European And other major financial institutions are fighting the steep price hike, according to Agence France-Presse.
However, he stressed that this would not necessarily lead to a “major correction” because “dollar It will remain a shrine.”
Meanwhile, the outlook remains bleak International economy.
Francesco Pesole, currency strategist at ING, warned:United Kingdom AndEurozone and Japan They are all exposed to the fluctuations associated with the gas.”
aroused Ukrainian crisis and the penalties imposed Fly In response to his attack, a major supply disruption Gas world, which caused a sharp rise in energy prices and thus fueled inflation as it weakened growth.
If confirmed reopen China After prolonged government quarantine measures to combat COVID-19, Foley warned the world’s second-largest economy requires power “It will intensify competition in the gas supply market natural liquefied“.
The United States remains more independent due to its large natural resources.
Another issue to keep an eye on, according to the analyst, is “the end of the mandate of Haruhiko Kuroda”, the president of Bank Afor my Japanese center In the spring, as “could give hope to adjust the monetary policy” currently very flexible Japan.
It’s inside United KingdomHe underlined that negotiations with the European Union are ongoing Ireland North can reflect negatively on GBP In case of tension.
effect on inflation
Despite its recent resurgence, it remains EUR Down 7.7 percent against the dollar year-to-date, which will make 2022 the worst year for the single European currency since 2015.
Nor the bank central European It has been hesitant in the past to flood the market with liquidity, if it was inflation Non-existent, and the weak currency gave preference to European exporters.
Now, the equation has been reversed, as Pesoli commented that “coins The higher price is a tool for fighting inflationand if weak dollar Again, this will help other countries limit price increases.”
Since the Price of the raw material like oil inside Global market Determined in dollars, the price recovery currencies Against the dollar, it will have repercussions that go beyond trade with the United States.
In the United States, however, it has decreased United States currency It will have limited positive results because”exports It’s not a big part of US growth, says Joe Manimbo, an analyst at Convera Financial Services.
