The recent seismic activity in Myanmar has cast a spotlight on global earthquake preparedness, prompting renewed scrutiny of Africa’s vulnerability. Experts are voicing concerns about the continent’s seismic threats and the limited capacity to effectively respond to potential disasters.

Seismic history: A Reminder of Past Tragedies

Africa’s history is punctuated by devastating earthquakes. The 2023 earthquake in morocco resulted in thousands of fatalities, while a 2005 quake in Ethiopia displaced approximately 6,500 people. Thes events underscore the ever-present risk.

the East African Rift System: A Geological hotspot

At the heart of Africa’s seismic risk lies the East African Rift System, where the African Plate is gradually splitting into the Nubian and Somali Plates. This geological process increases the likelihood of earthquakes in countries such as Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, and Mozambique.

Folarin Kolawole, a structural geologist at Columbia University, explains that assessing earthquake risk involves examining ancient seismic events and identifying fault lines. He notes that Africa’s complex geological structure makes it notably susceptible to seismic activity.

Africa’s Earthquake Zones: Identifying High-Risk Areas

Several regions in Africa are recognized as active seismic zones.A 2016 study produced the Seismotectonic Map of Africa, which highlights areas based on historical earthquakes and ongoing geological activity. Kolawole identifies the East African Rift, encompassing Malawi, Tanzania, Ethiopia, and Madagascar, as the most earthquake-prone region.

While west Africa is often considered tectonically stable, past earthquakes in ghana and recent tremors in Nigeria suggest a potential for significant seismic events.

Lake Kivu: A Unique Threat

Lake Kivu, situated between Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo, presents a unique hazard. this deep lake contains large quantities of dissolved carbon dioxide and methane. A strong earthquake could trigger a limnic eruption,releasing these gases and possibly suffocating thousands.

A similar event at Lake Nyos in Cameroon in 1986 resulted in over 1,700 fatalities. To mitigate the risk at Lake Kivu, the Rwandan government launched the KivuWatt Gas Methane Power plant in 2016 to extract methane for electricity production.

preparedness: A Critical Gap

Despite the known risks and mitigation efforts, Africa remains largely unprepared for major earthquakes. gladys Karegi Kianji, a seismologist at the University of Nairobi, emphasizes the lack of adequate seismic monitoring systems.

[Governments] don’t recognize the importance of putting a network that is going to feed them with the data to actually do the seismic hazard warning. definitely nothing like that exists.

Kianji notes that governments frequently enough react to disasters rather than proactively reducing risks. She calls for increased awareness,improved seismic monitoring,better policies and urban planning,and greater economic investment.

Challenges to Preparedness

Conflict and unrest in some african countries, such as the Democratic Republic of Congo, further hinder preparedness efforts, according to Kolawole.

We cannot stop earthquakes from happening. The best we can do is to prepare for it and monitor.

Folarin Kolawole, structural geologist at Columbia University

Currently, fewer than a third of African countries have implemented multi-hazard early warning systems.

Learning from Global Examples

Africa can draw lessons from other regions, including Myanmar, on improving building standards and investing in geological research.

I think there was a lapse in the governance in terms of the building and construction. If a lot of [scientific] research was put in, some of those very active zones they may have been able to warn people to be able to evacuate.

Gladys Karegi Kianji, seismologist at the University of Nairobi