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A report exposes how the German auto industry really is

eThere have already been many figures showing how many jobs in the German automotive industry are threatened by the change from internal combustion engines to electric drives. They all sounded threatening, but the interim report of the fourth working group of the National Platform for Mobility (NPM) sounds particularly catastrophic for two reasons.

On the one hand, the number is significantly larger than in most other studies: up to 410,000 jobs are at risk. On the other hand, given the perplexity of the experts about what can be done to prevent such a scenario, the reader may become anxious.

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10.10.2019, North Rhine-Westphalia, Paderborn: An electric car from the American manufacturer Tesla stands at a charging station (Mennekes) and is being charged. Photo: Friso Gentsch / dpa | Use worldwide– – – – –

The 44-page report only analyzes in detail how bad the technological change could actually be for the German auto industry. The recommendations for action are then rather poor, although they still fill two and a half pages.

The automotive industry is recommended to “identify new value creation potential as soon as possible and adapt their business models to the mobility of the future”. That sounds good, but it’s easier said than done. Actually, the NPM working groups should deliver exactly that. After all, numerous senior industry managers are members of the group – from Continental and Bosch up Volkswagen and Daimler,

Fewer and fewer jobs for unskilled employees

But the disaster description dominates: “If the competitive situation of German industry in the field of electromobility does not improve in the coming years and the import requirement for battery cells and electric vehicles continues to increase, due to the combination of the effects of productivity increases and accelerated electrification, this would be considerable Employment is expected to decline by 2030, ”the experts write.

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Source: WORLD infographic

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And that could be even more drastic than previously calculated if the figures from the federal government’s climate package prove true. According to this, up to ten million electric cars should drive in Germany by 2030. Even supporters of electromobility consider this extremely optimistic. If this scenario were to occur, 410,000 jobs would probably be lost, particularly in drive technology and vehicle construction. However, numerous jobs that are indirectly related to the auto industry would also be affected.

And even if this particularly negative scenario should not end up happening exactly like this, according to the experts, Germany must adapt to the fact that there will be far fewer employees in the key sector in the future. “Even if this extreme scenario can be averted due to a better development of domestic offers of electric vehicles and domestic production of batteries, the following applies: In no case will automobile manufacturers continue to be able to provide the same level of added value and employment along the supply chains as it does today Case is, ”says the interim report.

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Deceptive admission numbers – – – – –

The working group warns that it will be even more difficult in future for auxiliary workers, semi-skilled and unskilled workers to find employment in Germany. Because it is the hardest thing for them to get them fit for the new world of cars, which primarily needs software and electronics experts. “The advancing digitalization and automation of work processes will further contribute to the fact that fewer jobs will be available in the future, especially for this group of employees,” it says. A vocational qualification will be an indispensable prerequisite in order to still have a chance on the job market.

State should help with change

However, the recommendations of the working group in its interim report remain abstract. It says that “politics, companies and educational institutions should work together even more than before”. “Companies must be enabled to recognize changes early on in order to be able to develop a suitable personnel planning and personnel development strategy. Small and medium-sized companies in particular have a high need for advice. ”All of this will not be new knowledge in 2020.

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Source: WORLD infographic

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Companies would need “strategic personnel planning and a target image for competency and job profiles, from which they can derive modular, flexible and individualized training opportunities for their employees”, write the experts. A central training concept for the mobility sector had to be developed. That sounds good, but it remains cloudy: “Regional competence hubs” are necessary for this, and there must be “unbureaucratic, low-threshold and efficient funding”.

Where things get more specific, the experts usually only inspect exams. It is said that an amendment to Social Security Code III needs to be examined. “The Qualification Opportunities Act should be opened for collective applications and the previous individual funding should be supplemented by the possibility of funding an overall measure. The current individual funding requires very high (process) effort in the individual case examination, especially for the reimbursement of the remuneration costs during the qualification period, ”write the experts.

The NPM working group sees the state as an obligation. In addition, that too Kurzarbeitergeld will not only be paid in economic crises in the future, but also when retraining is necessary due to a changing industry such as the automotive industry. For example, companies should be exempt from social security contributions for employees, as long as they continue their education.

The recommendations are particularly specific when it comes to how the state can help with change. One should have expected more from an interim report in 2020. Those who read the recommendations will not get rid of the feeling that the industry is running out of time for changes while still being diagnosed with a life-threatening situation.

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