eThere have already been many figures showing how many jobs in the German automotive industry are threatened by the change from internal combustion engines to electric drives. They all sounded threatening, but the interim report of the fourth working group of the National Platform for Mobility (NPM) sounds particularly catastrophic for two reasons.
On the one hand, the number is significantly larger than in most other studies: up to 410,000 jobs are at risk. On the other hand, given the perplexity of the experts about what can be done to prevent such a scenario, the reader may become anxious.
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The 44-page report only analyzes in detail how bad the technological change could actually be for the German auto industry. The recommendations for action are then rather poor, although they still fill two and a half pages.
The automotive industry is recommended to “identify new value creation potential as soon as possible and adapt their business models to the mobility of the future”. That sounds good, but it’s easier said than done. Actually, the NPM working groups should deliver exactly that. After all, numerous senior industry managers are members of the group – from Continental and Bosch up Volkswagen and Daimler,
Fewer and fewer jobs for unskilled employees
But the disaster description dominates: “If the competitive situation of German industry in the field of electromobility does not improve in the coming years and the import requirement for battery cells and electric vehicles continues to increase, due to the combination of the effects of productivity increases and accelerated electrification, this would be considerable Employment is expected to decline by 2030, ”the experts write.