Growing Fears of a US shift on ukraine as trump Weighs In
Concerns are mounting among European allies that the United States, under a potential second Trump administration, may be poised to pressure Ukraine into accepting unfavorable peace terms, potentially ceding territory without firm security guarantees. This apprehension stems from ongoing, discreet negotiations involving US envoys – reportedly shuttling between Moscow and Florida where they’ve engaged with Ukrainian diplomats - to formulate a peace plan currently based on a 28-point document initially drafted by the Americans with Russian input.
The situation is further complex by revelations of back-channel communications.A leaked transcript of a phone call last month showed US envoy Derek Witkoff offering advice to Russian officials on how to appeal to Trump’s sensibilities. Russian sources have also publicly expressed confidence that the incoming Trump team is receptive to their demands.
These developments have sparked open frustration among European leaders. french President emmanuel Macron, during a recent call with other European heads of state, voiced fears of a US betrayal, stating, “There is a possibility that the U.S. will betray Ukraine on the issue of territory without clarity on security guarantees.” German Chancellor Friedrich Merz echoed this sentiment, accusing the Americans of “playing games,” both with Ukraine and with its European partners.
Within Ukraine, analysts are questioning the viability of any peace agreement that requires territorial concessions, doubting whether such a deal would be accepted by the military.President Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly emphasized to Trump that maintaining Ukraine’s territorial integrity and securing robust future security guarantees are non-negotiable pillars of any potential peace.
Though, experts warn that Trump’s potential impatience could severely hamper Ukraine’s ability to continue fighting. While direct US aid to Ukraine has already ceased, replaced by a NATO arrangement where weapons are sold to European nations for onward transfer to Kyiv, a further withdrawal of US support could be devastating.
“If the U.S. stops even doing that - and it would be quite a radical policy change if the U.S. is unwilling even to sell weapons to European countries – then Europe will have to continue on the path it is already on, which is to bolster its own defense production capacity,” explained Brian taylor, director of the Moynihan Institute of Global Affairs at Syracuse University.
european leaders, including British Prime Minister Kier starmer and the King of England, have implored the president to remain steadfast in supporting Ukraine and to maintain pressure on Moscow, believing this is the key to altering Putin’s calculations. They are currently debating the use of approximately $220 billion in frozen Russian assets held in European banks - whether to deploy them as aid to kyiv or reserve them for future negotiations.
Kyle Balzer, a scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, argues that leveraging this financial pressure, alongside Russia‘s existing economic vulnerabilities due to lower energy prices and increased military spending, could be effective. “Russia’s economic growth has taken a heavy hit…And the Russian army is taking casualties that the Russian people won’t be able to ignore forever.”
trump himself recently highlighted the scale of Russian losses, estimating 7,000 soldiers dying weekly – a figure dwarfing American casualties in the Iraq War over eight years (under 4,500).
Balzer stresses that this pressure will only be decisive if the Trump administration refrains from offering Putin hope of a favorable agreement tied to benefits for American businesses. ”the West must attack russia’s resolve and convince Putin that he cannot achieve his goals. Continuing to give Putin hope makes that an unlikely prospect.”
