Russian Sarmat Missile Test Appears to Have Failed, Raising Concerns About Nuclear Deterrence
DOMBAROVSKY, RUSSIA – A recent Russian missile test, initially believed to be of an older R-36M2 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), likely involved the advanced Sarmat system and ended in failure, according to analysts. The test, conducted Friday from a silo in Dombarovsky, russia, adds to a string of setbacks plaguing the Sarmat’s growth and raises questions about the reliability of Russia‘s nuclear arsenal.
The failed test is particularly concerning as Russia relies heavily on its ICBM force for nuclear deterrence. The aging R-36M2 missiles,which carry a significant portion of Russia’s strategic warheads,are nearing the end of their service life and their replacement - the Sarmat – has faced repeated delays since its initial development in 2018. This latest incident pushes the timeline for a full Sarmat deployment further into the future, perhaps weakening Russia’s ability to credibly deter adversaries.
The missile silo used for the test had undergone “urgent renovation” beginning in Spring 2025, after the ice thawed, suggesting preparation for Sarmat tests following the destruction of the missile’s northern launch site last year, according to Etienne Marcuz, an analyst on strategic armaments at the Foundation for Strategic Research. ”Work there began in Spring 2025, after the ice thawed,” Marcuz wrote on X. He further stated that the failure “would be highly detrimental to the medium-term future of Russian deterrence.”
Analysts believe a test of the R-36M2 is unlikely given the missile has not been tested in over a decade and is slated for retirement. “This leaves Sarmat,” stated Pavel Podvig, a researcher at the United Nations and operator of the Russian Nuclear Forces blog. Podvig agrees with marcuz’s assessment,noting that the Rocket forces would have little incentive to test launch the aging R-36M2.
A failure of the Sarmat, if confirmed, would be the latest in a series of problems delaying its entry into service. Even if the test involved an older ICBM,the result would raise concerns about hardware decay and obsolescence within Russia’s existing nuclear forces. Moreover, the maintainance of the R-36M2 missiles is increasingly uncertain, as it was previously handled by Ukraine until 2014.
