Yoshinobu Immai‘s Deal Highlights Risk in 2025-26 Free Agency, Pirates Target O’Hearn, Verlander a Potential One-Year Play
San Diego Padres pitcher Yoshinobu Immai’s six-year, $135 million contract – including an approximately $22 million posting fee – underscores the potential risks inherent in the current MLB free agent market. While Immai possesses clear talent, questions remain regarding his consistency and reliance on a single pitch, leading some to believe expectations of a Yamamoto-level impact might potentially be overly optimistic.
the Immai signing is part of a larger trend in the 2025-26 offseason, with teams navigating a complex landscape of high-value targets and potential pitfalls. The Pittsburgh Pirates, reportedly heavily interested in Josh Naylor, are now pivoting towards a different tier of free agents, focusing on Ryan O’Hearn. Meanwhile, veteran pitchers like Justin Verlander are seeking opportunities to continue their careers, presenting teams with low-risk, potentially high-reward options.
Immai, despite a fastball that sits at 93-97 mph and touches 99, exhibited control issues in Japan prior to 2025, with walk rates of 3.6 per nine innings in 2024 and 4.1 in 2023. To succeed in the majors, he will need to more effectively utilize his slider and splitter.
The Pirates’ shift in focus comes after being strongly linked to naylor. They are now targeting O’Hearn, who the Orioles previously viewed as a platoon hitter. However, O’Hearn demonstrated success against left-handed pitchers in 2025, hitting .278/.358/.474 in 109 plate appearances against them, suggesting he could handle an everyday role.
looking at the pitching market, Justin Verlander outperformed Max Scherzer in 2025, finishing with a 3.85 ERA despite a slow start to the season (0-8 with a 4.99 ERA in his first 16 starts). He rebounded with a 2.60 ERA over his final 13 starts and remained healthy throughout the year. At 43 in February, Verlander is considered a viable candidate for a one-year deal, particularly with teams that play in pitcher-amiable ballparks, such as a potential return to the San Francisco Giants.
