Cop30: Navigating a Fraught Path to Climate Action
As teh 30th conference of the Parties (Cop30) gets underway in brazil, the path to meaningful climate action is riddled with obstacles. While the urgency of the climate crisis demands decisive steps, the summit faces a complex landscape of competing national interests, historical grievances, and a fundamental disagreement over the future of fossil fuels. Approximately 50 countries are believed to be resistant to even discussing the issue of phasing out oil, gas, and coal.
Brazil, a top 10 global oil and gas exporter currently exploring new offshore fields near the Amazon, holds the crucial role of facilitator. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has consistently championed the right of developing nations to utilize their resources, asserting that historically wealthy countries, responsible for two centuries of exploitation and the current climate crisis, must lead the way in curtailing emissions.
The success of Cop30 may hinge on whether a discussion about fossil fuels can even take place. leo Roberts of the E3G thinktank emphasizes, “It undermines the credibility of Cop if Cop can’t deal with fossil fuels.”
Should such a discussion occur, advocates insist it must be framed within a “just transition” – a process that prioritizes the well-being of workers, the poor, and vulnerable populations as the world shifts towards clean energy. UN Secretary-General António Guterres highlighted the potential for repeating historical injustices in the pursuit of clean energy, stating in July, “The critical minerals that power the clean energy revolution are often found in countries that have long been exploited…Communities mistreated. Rights trampled. Environments trashed…This must end.”
The control of critical mineral supply chains adds another layer of complexity. China currently dominates this sector, while the US seeks to expand its influence. Both nations have historically shown reluctance towards UN regulations impacting their markets. However, Lula’s longstanding commitment to workers’ rights could prove a notable factor in negotiations.
Brazil’s own internal challenges add to the pressure. With democracy in a fragile state, compounded by economic hardship and the rise of populist politics, simply maintaining stability will be a considerable achievement. As The Guardian reported, “simply holding things together is hard enough.”
Despite these hurdles, the need for concrete action is paramount.Meena Raman,head of programmes at the Third World Network,argues that future pledges are insufficient. “They need action now,finance now,and a clear plan for sticking as close as possible to 1.5C,” she states.”It is indeed no longer sufficient to merely invoke the need to save multilateralism. We must deliver on saving the planet and protecting the world’s most vulnerable. What is needed now is bold, accountable action that prioritises justice, equity and survival.”
As of November 9, 2025, more than 100 countries have submitted their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) – commitments to reduce national emissions – ahead of Cop30. Though, the true measure of Cop30’s success will not be in the number of submissions, but in the ambition and implementation of those commitments, and whether it can navigate the deep divisions to forge a path towards a more sustainable future.
