Summary of the Article: Monitoring and Responding to Chinese Military Exercises
This article, authored by Major Jane Kaufmann and Lieutenant commander Chris pagenkopf, argues that the United States needs a nuanced and proactive approach to monitoring and responding to Chinese military exercises, notably those conducted within the Shanghai Cooperation Institution (SCO) and with partners like Russia and Iran.The authors emphasize that the trajectory of these exercises – their increasing sophistication and integration – is more critically importent than their sheer number.
Here’s a breakdown of the key arguments:
* Beyond Numbers: Focus on Scope & Integration: The US shouldn’t be alarmed by small, symbolic exercises. However, persistent, high-end drills, especially those demonstrating increased PLA integration with other militaries (like Russia in Zapad exercises), require a reassessment of US posture. Qualitative improvements in PLA capabilities are a key indicator.
* Monitoring is Crucial: Disciplined monitoring is needed to differentiate between signaling and genuine operational integration. Examples cited include the sale of advanced air defense systems to Iran coupled with combined exercises, and Russia training Chinese airborne forces.
* Sustained Partnerships are Essential: The US must avoid retrenchment and actively maintain combined training programs with key partners like India and thailand. These exercises should focus on interoperability, crisis response, and demonstrate tangible benefits to partners. This should be coupled with diplomatic and economic initiatives.
* Proactive Response to Capability Improvements: If the PLA demonstrates significant qualitative improvements,the US should scale up exercises and deployments in relevant regions,coordinating with NATO and regional allies. The article provides a specific example: if Russia and China demonstrate combined airborne capabilities,the US and allies could respond with forward-deployed air defense units and intercept exercises.
* The SCO as a Platform: The SCO provides China with a platform to build military cooperation, normalize deployments, and strengthen a security network.
* Dual Challenge for the US: the US faces the challenge of accurately interpreting Chinese exercises (signaling vs. integration) and simultaneously building strong partnerships across Eurasia.
In essence, the authors advocate for a strategy of “careful monitoring, sustained partnership building, and proactive response” to counter China’s expanding military diplomacy and ensure US national security interests are protected. They stress the importance of a complete, coherent strategy that signals reliability, long-term commitment, and multilateral cooperation.
