Tropical Storm Jerry Potential: Leeward Islands on alert
MIAMI - The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is closely monitoring a developing tropical wave in the central Atlantic Ocean that could become Tropical storm Jerry later this week,potentially bringing impacts to the Leeward Islands. As of Tuesday, the disturbance is located several hundred miles east of the Lesser antilles and is exhibiting signs of organization.
The NHC currently gives the system a 70% chance of formation through the next 48 hours,and an 80% chance through the next seven days. If it develops into a named storm,it would be designated ”Jerry,” the tenth of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. Forecast models suggest the system will move generally westward, potentially passing near or just north of the Leeward Islands late this week and into the weekend.
Currently,the system is characterized by a broad area of low pressure and disorganized thunderstorms. Though, environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development, including lower wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures. While it’s too early to determine the exact track and intensity, residents of the Leeward Islands – including islands like Antigua, Barbuda, St.Kitts,Nevis,Montserrat,and Guadeloupe - should closely monitor forecasts and be prepared for potential impacts.
The primary concerns associated with this system include heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and potentially hazardous marine conditions. Even if the system remains a tropical depression, it could still produce meaningful rainfall and localized flooding. The NHC is urging mariners to monitor the progress of the disturbance and exercise caution.
Beyond the Leeward Islands, the long-term track of any potential Tropical Storm Jerry remains uncertain. Some models suggest a continued westward movement into the western Atlantic, while others indicate a turn toward the north. The NHC will continue to issue updates as the system evolves.
the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is predicted to be above-average, with forecasters anticipating 17-25 named storms.This heightened activity underscores the importance of preparedness for coastal communities throughout the Caribbean and along the U.S. East Coast. Residents are encouraged to have a hurricane plan in place, including a supply kit and evacuation route.
Updates will be provided at weather.com as the situation develops.
