Hurricane Humberto‘s Path Shifts, Reducing Imelda Threat to U.S. Southeast
September 28, 2025 – A meaningful shift in the forecast track of Hurricane Humberto is dramatically reducing the likelihood of a U.S. landfall from the developing Tropical Storm Imelda, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Initially, concerns existed about a potential interaction between the two systems, but the latest models indicate Humberto is likely to steer Imelda away from the U.S. coastline.
The NHC stated that recent forecasts “considerably reduces the likelihood of a U.S. landfall.” They further explained, “Beyond that time, models are generally faster and more offshore of the United States with the eventual track of the tropical cyclone, following the trend of the past few cycles, due to it missing the upper trough and eventually following Hurricane Humberto more out to sea.”
Earlier this week, on september 25th, forecasters acknowledged the potential for interaction between the two storms, a phenomenon known as the Fujiwhara effect.as noted by Marshall Shepherd, “There is still some possibility of Humberto and the next storm, which will be named Imelda, interacting with each other…Humberto could drag “Imelda” out to sea, or another low could nudge the storm toward the Carolinas.” He cautioned, ”That seems to be the solution the models are buying for now, but it could change.”
despite the improved outlook, NHC forecasters emphasize caution, stating, “It is too early to feel extremely confident.”
While a direct landfall is now less probable, some impacts are still expected.A Tropical Storm watch has been issued for the eastern-central coast of Florida, with potential for tropical storm winds, swells, and rainbands.NOAA’s Whether Prediction Center warns that surges of deep tropical moisture associated with the system are likely to interact with a stalled frontal boundary along the southeast U.S. coastline, potentially leading to heavy rain and flash flooding. The extent of rainfall impacts will depend on how close the system gets to the coast before turning out to sea.
