NATO Prepares for Certain Conflict with Russia as Incursions Escalate
By Emma Walker, World-Today-News.com - September 21, 2024
Key Takeaways:
* NATO is increasingly preparing for a limited, but perhaps unavoidable, conflict with Russia, a significant shift from its initial strategy in the Ukraine war.
* Recent, increasingly brazen incursions into NATO airspace – including manned aircraft – are driving this change in outlook.
* While early US policy prioritized avoiding direct conflict with Russia and containing the war within Ukraine, a series of incidents are challenging that approach.
For the first two years of the war in Ukraine, a core principle guided US and NATO strategy: avoid direct conflict with Russia. As outlined in a now-famous note card carried by then-Joint Chiefs of Staff Chair Gen. Mark Milley, the priorities were clear: prevent a “kinetic conflict” with Russia, contain the war geographically, maintain NATO unity, and empower Ukraine.
Supporting Ukraine was crucial, but preventing escalation consistently took precedence - a stance that sometimes frustrated Kyiv, which sought bolder Western support, including strikes within Russian territory. That cautious approach continued with the return of President Donald Trump, who repeatedly warned of the potential for the conflict to spiral into World War III.
Though, a dramatic shift appears to be underway. Over the past week, NATO leaders have signaled a growing acceptance that some form of conflict with Russia – albeit hopefully limited – might potentially be inevitable.This change is being driven by a series of escalating provocations: increasingly frequent and aggressive incursions into NATO airspace.
On September 8th, a swarm of 21 Russian drones penetrated Polish territory, prompting an unprecedented joint response from Polish, German, Italian, and Dutch military forces to shoot them down. While it’s possible these drones were inadvertently diverted while targeting Ukrainian infrastructure, the sheer number raises concerns. The use of unmanned vehicles has,until now,offered a degree of de-escalation potential – drones can be neutralized without risking human life,allowing for more assertive responses without triggering wider conflict.(A 2023 incident saw russian jets down a US MQ-9 reaper drone over the Black Sea, highlighting the risks even with unmanned systems.)
Though, the incident on friday, September 13th, marked a significant escalation. Three Russian fighter jets violated Estonian airspace for twelve minutes, intercepted by NATO jets. Unlike Poland,Estonia does not border Ukraine,and the presence of manned aircraft dramatically increased the potential for miscalculation and a perilous confrontation. The Russian government denies the violation.
The situation further deteriorated this week with a series of drone sightings that forced the closure of airports in Copenhagen and oslo on monday, and a second danish airport on Thursday. These disruptions, while not directly involving military confrontation, demonstrate a pattern of escalating russian probing and a willingness to disrupt NATO member states.
The shift in NATO’s thinking doesn’t suggest an eagerness for war. Rather, it reflects a growing recognition that Russia is testing the alliance’s resolve and that the previous strategy of prioritizing de-escalation at all costs may no longer be
