International Collaboration Bolsters Avian Flu Preparedness Through Modeling Challenge
A new international challenge is underway, focused on improving the ability to model and predict the spread of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (IAHP), with the goal of strengthening global preparedness and response to current and future epidemics.Organized by researchers at the French National Research Institute for Agriculture, Food and Environment (INRAE), the initiative aims to bridge the gap between modeling teams and risk management agencies – including those involved in agriculture and food security - to facilitate a more coordinated and effective fight against the disease.
The collaborative effort will involve contributions from various stakeholders in defining modeling rules, formulating key questions for participating teams, and analyzing and synthesizing the results. This process is designed to foster mutual understanding and build a robust global network for epidemic preparation.
IAHP remains a significant threat to both breeding poultry and wild bird populations worldwide. This challenge builds upon the success of INRAE’s first international animal health modeling challenge,conducted between 2020 and 2022,which focused on African Swine Fever (ASF). That initial challenge involved providing international teams with data on a virtual ASF epidemic spreading between pigs and wild boars in a European context, tasking them with reproducing the outbreak, predicting its expansion, and prioritizing control measures. The results contributed to improved preparedness for future ASF outbreaks and highlighted the importance of considering the livestock/wild fauna interface in disease control.The findings were published in a special issue of the journal Epidemics.
INRAE’s Animal Health Department units, “Biology, epidemiology and risk analysis in animal health” (BIOEPAR) and “Pathogenic hosts-agents” (IHAP), developed the original model used in the ASF challenge.The current avian flu challenge, part of the five-year Horizon Europe Wiliman-ID research project coordinated by INRAE (https://www.wiliman-id.eu/), continues INRAE’s commitment to supporting public policies by providing essential tools for managing current and future epidemics. The initiative seeks to quickly deliver factual information to inform political decisions and enhance preparation for emerging threats like IAHP.
Further information on similar modeling challenges focused on human health, including those addressing seasonal Flu, Dengue, and the Ebola virus, can be found at:
https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.1812594116
https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.1909865116
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1755436517301275
https://www.sciencedirect.com/special-issue/10W50R8KX1V
