Fragile Ceasefire Raises Hopes, Concerns for Lebanon‘s Future

A ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, brokered by the United States via Amos hochstein, has brought a temporary halt to cross-border hostilities, but the underlying tensions remain high and the long-term stability of Lebanon is deeply uncertain.The agreement, finalized on December 22nd, aims to prevent a wider conflict following weeks of escalating exchanges of fire concentrated primarily in southern Lebanon, especially around the town of Khiam.

The recent clashes, which began in October 2023 following the start of the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, have resulted in dozens of casualties on both sides and displaced tens of thousands of civilians in southern Lebanon. According to the Lebanese army, over 90 villages in the south have been affected by Israeli strikes. The ceasefire is being monitored by the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), which has a mandate to ensure the cessation of hostilities and support the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) in maintaining security.

Tho, the cessation of hostilities does not address the fundamental issues driving the conflict, including Hezbollah’s continued presence and armament in southern lebanon, and Israel’s concerns about the group’s military capabilities. The current Lebanese government, led by Prime Minister Najib Mikati, faces notable challenges in asserting state authority in the south and implementing a extensive security plan. The political landscape in Lebanon remains fractured, with deep divisions between various factions, including Hezbollah, its allies, and its opponents.

The International Crisis Group recently published an analysis, “Rebuilding the Lebanese House: New Government and Hizbollah Disarmament,” highlighting the critical need for a new national dialog to address the root causes of the conflict and establish a sustainable framework for peace. The report emphasizes the importance of strengthening the LAF, promoting economic reforms, and addressing the grievances of the Lebanese population. The report also notes the potential for external actors, such as Iran and Syria, to play a destabilizing role in Lebanon.

The ceasefire provides a window of prospect to pursue a political solution, but the path forward is fraught with obstacles. Successful negotiations will require a commitment from all parties to address the underlying issues and prioritize the long-term interests of Lebanon and the region. The involvement of key international stakeholders,including the united States,France,and Qatar,will also be crucial.