Collector Car Market Shows Resilience Amidst Economic Shifts

Industry Experts Weigh In on Current Trends and Future Outlook

The collector car market is navigating a complex landscape, marked by cautious buyer sentiment and shifting economic factors. Despite these challenges, industry professionals observe a nuanced and surprisingly balanced market, with pockets of significant strength.

Navigating Uncertainty: A Mixed Bag

The first half of the year presented a “rough ride” for some dealers, grappling with the need to liquidate older inventory. However, recent months have seen improved sales and overall market activity. As Dave Kinney, founder of US Appraisal and publisher of the Hagerty Price Guide, noted, “I’ve rarely seen a market that’s been searching for direction as long as this market has been.” He attributes this caution to factors like rising parts costs, interest rates, and general economic uncertainty.

Despite these headwinds, Derek Tam-Scott, co-founder of OTS, a collector car dealer, observes a more balanced dynamic. “The top end of the market, he notes, ‘is ripping right along,’ and overall feels that there is more balance between buyers and sellers across the market. ‘It’s in a more healthy, sustainable position, certainly.'”

Harald de Bruijn of Fourwheel Trader, a YouTube channel focusing on depreciation analysis, reports a slight market strengthening for the sports and supercars he tracks. Year-over-year price changes are “less negative than before,” indicating a reversal from the peak value loss experienced in late 2022.

Jose Romero of DriverSource in Houston shared his recent experiences: “The past six months were a bit of a ‘rough ride’ for Jose Romero… More recently, however, inventory has been moving better, and ‘I think the market’s healthy overall, with a lot of activity.'”

Adolfo Massari, co-founder of LBI Limited and Animoya Garage, echoed this sentiment, describing the market as “healthy” and “resilient.” He acknowledged the “tariff roller coaster ride” but found navigation manageable, reporting consistent optimism among his colleagues and clients.

Rick Carey, an auction market observer since the early 1990s, noted that while prices are down, they have returned to more sensible levels. He suggested that some overly optimistic auction estimates might be designed to appease consignors rather than reflect true market value.

Barney Ruprecht, VP of Auctions at Broad Arrow, also cited general global uncertainty but felt that the collector car market itself is experiencing less of it compared to the end of last year. He believes “Overall collector sentiment remains positive.”

Economic Jitters and the Tariff Tangent

The term “uncertainty” frequently surfaced in discussions, particularly concerning the impact of evolving U.S. tariffs. Tam-Scott noted, “There’s just some number of people who can’t participate [in the market] right now because of interest rates or economic uncertainty and they just don’t feel comfortable buying.”

Kinney elaborated on the fluctuations: “I’ve seen prices of supplies and parts go up and down in the last six months so much, it’s been hilarious.” While Wall Street has adapted to tariffs, he observed that “on the micro-level it seems like everybody’s being cautious.”

John Temerian, founder of Curated, found that his niche market of 1990s-2000s analog supercars remains largely unaffected. He stated, “This niche market appears immune to broader economic jitters” due to its foundation in “passion and scarcity rather than short-term speculation.” He did, however, acknowledge that economic pressures have introduced “a layer of complexity and stress.”

Romero recounted clients rushing to ship cars before tariff deadlines. “I had some clients that had cars abroad that paid a stupid amount of money to fly their cars back over the next day,” he explained, fearing substantial unexpected tariff costs on high-value vehicles.

Massari shared a similar experience with a Porsche in Germany, which remained at the port until the 25% tariff hike was exempted for cars 25 years or older. Tam-Scott’s attempt to import a Ferrari F40 faced similar pre-tariff anxieties. “We were running around like mad trying to get the thing into the U.S. before then,” he said, only for the policy to change.

Temerian described tariffs as a “roller coaster ride,” while Massari noted that clients are now “a bit more wary and cautious about acquiring cars overseas.” Ruprecht highlighted the distinction for newer vehicles, predicting, “I predict the new car market will slow down” due to higher tariffs.

Conversely, Romero feels “the dust has kind of settled” regarding tariffs, reporting robust business from Canadian, Mexican, and Brazilian clients. The dynamic of favorable exchange rates that previously boosted imports has reversed, with a strong euro now encouraging more U.S. exports, according to Massari and Tam-Scott.

What’s Gaining Traction, and What’s Not

“There are segments that are doing well and there are segments that are doing less than well right now,” stated Kinney, identifying strength in the JDM and “JDM-adjacent” market, specifically mentioning left-hand-drive, U.S.-market versions of cars like the Mazda RX-7 and Toyota Supra Mk IV.

The Porsche market consistently shows strength, with both air-cooled and early water-cooled generations remaining highly sought after. Massari noted that “997.1 and .2 GT3 RS and RS 4.0L, and GT2 RS have skyrocketed.”

The demand for RUF-built Porsches has also surprised many. Ruprecht commented on the “seemingly grown overnight” popularity of RUF, citing strong auction results for early “Yellowbird” models. Massari believes this trend, along with the continued interest in Singer Porsches, bodes well for other tasteful, high-caliber restomod projects across marques.

Harald de Bruijn observes that “most sports cars from Porsche are doing extremely well value-wise.” He also noted surprising price stability or increases for third-gen GT500 Mustangs, Alfa Romeo 4Cs, and certain Ferrari models. However, he added that newer Aston Martins continue to depreciate rapidly.

Massari pointed out a positive shift for iconic British sports cars from the 1950s and ’60s, such as the Jaguar E-Type and Aston Martin DB5, though MGs and Healeys haven’t seen the same appreciation.

Strong prices were reported for most modern analog supercars. Temerian and Tam-Scott both highlighted significant demand for Lamborghini Diablos, particularly rare variants like the SE30 and GT models. A consistent theme across segments is that condition, specification, and color are more critical than ever.

Buyer Preferences and Evolving Tastes

“Every dealer that I talk to, without exception, says that if it’s not a perfect or damn-near-perfect car, it’s having a hard time selling at any price,” observed Kinney. He recounted a buyer rejecting an old British car due to a leak.

Romero noted a decline in interest for project cars or “barn finds.” “It used to be we could buy a barn find/garage find type of car… But now you can’t sell those kinds of cars in the current state they’re in anymore. Those buyers are gone.”

Romero also mentioned that traditionally resistant older collectors are now warming to later-model cars like the Ferrari 360 Challenge Stradale or 550 Maranello. Temerian added, “while core collectors remain active, we’re seeing a younger and more global audience stepping in—especially savvy buyers from the Middle East, Europe and parts of Asia who are less phased by economic headwinds.”

Temerian highlighted the unprecedented premiums for unique specifications, stating, “A truly unique PTS [paint-to-sample] Porsche or out-of-range Ferrari spec can now bring 50-100% more than something standard.”

While social media fuels interest in cars like Diablos and PTS Porsches, Tam-Scott observes a potential decline in buyer knowledge. “The baseline level of knowledge people have about the cars seems to be a little lower,” he said. He notes a rise in “clout chasing,” where interest is driven by trends rather than deep-seated passion or understanding of a car’s history.

The growing influence of Millennial buyers continues to bolster prices for cars from the 1980s onward. Tam-Scott notes a surprising trend among younger buyers: a willingness to purchase automatic variants of desirable cars, like Tiptronic 964 or 993 Porsches. “There are just enough people out there who don’t know how to drive a stick but still want an air-cooled 911,” he explained, finding the increased values “baffling.”

Looking Ahead: Opportunities and Challenges

The upcoming Monterey auctions are seen as a crucial barometer for the high-end market. Kinney anticipates a stronger event than last year, suggesting auction houses have adjusted their pricing structures. Carey agrees, stating, “With less than a month from Monterey, I think things look pretty good on balance.”

Massari will be keenly watching the performance of Enzo-era Ferraris at Monterey, noting recent sales suggest potential for appreciation.

Romero emphasizes that traditional auction “heat checks” are less definitive now due to the prevalence of year-round online auctions. “It’s year-round now. It’s in the palm of your hands with all these auctions going online. You’re always getting comps.”

A growing concern for the industry is the increasing difficulty and expense of restoring and servicing classic cars. Kinney warns, “Not only is the cost for restoration higher because of the parts, but also the talent is quickly disappearing.” He anticipates more cars becoming parts donors, even if restorable.

Romero highlighted the lack of local expertise for owners outside major cities. “Even here in Houston, if I have some oddball car, there’s nobody to work on it. And then some of the shop prices… it’s gotten so ridiculous that I think people are shying away from that.” DriverSource is actively seeking mechanics, having recently hired four.

Kinney added, “Part of it is cultural, but people aren’t attempting projects.” The decline of the traditional father-son restoration teams and the rising cost of parts like chrome and paint contribute to this trend.

Despite these challenges, the overall outlook remains positive, with many observers noting more opportunities to find deals compared to previous years. It is currently more of a buyer’s market, and the timeless advice holds true: “buy what you love.”