Israel’s Attacks on Iran: A Dangerous Gamble?

Israel’s recent strikes against Iran have caused significant damage, yet experts debate the long-term impact on Iran’s nuclear program. These actions could potentially accelerate Tehran’s pursuit of a nuclear weapon, raising critical questions about regional stability and international diplomacy.

Swift Military Action, Uncertain Outcome

Within days of the conflict’s start, Israel has reportedly eliminated numerous Iranian nuclear scientists and key military figures. The attacks also targeted critical parts of Iran’s nuclear program, but Israeli military leaders and nuclear proliferation experts agree that the strikes haven’t critically damaged the program overall.

Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, claimed Iran was on the cusp of obtaining a nuclear bomb to justify the attacks. However, the strikes may not have bought much more time, and further lasting damage might require US involvement.

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The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported in 2024 that Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile continues to grow, raising concerns about its potential to produce nuclear weapons (IAEA Report).

Potential for Escalation

The attacks have stirred fear among Iranian leaders and anger amongst the populace. The Israeli strikes, which included orders for neighborhood evacuations, have evoked images of the Gaza conflict. These actions could potentially accelerate Iran’s pursuit of a bomb.

One Western military official with regional experience stated that these attacks might spur proliferation. They believe Iran will move as rapidly as possible to acquire a nuclear weapon if it has the ability after this conflict.

Obstacles and Alternatives

The Fordow facility near Qom, deeply buried under a mountain, poses a significant challenge. It houses crucial centrifuges and enriched uranium, and only powerful US bunker-busting munitions could destroy it.

Tzachi Hanegbi, the Israeli national security advisor, admitted that the Israel Defense Forces cannot independently dismantle Iran’s nuclear program. He added that the military could instead create conditions for a US-brokered deal to fully block Iran’s nuclear program.

Alex Grinberg, a former Iran researcher with the IDF intelligence research division, noted that although it might be impossible to destroy Fordow from the air, other methods exist. A deal involving a strict inspection regime could offer a more enduring solution.