30 million vaccinated by summer: “It’s a way out of the crisis but it’s not the end of the virus”

While vaccination among the elderly is starting to show its first effects, with a 17.5% drop in contamination over the past two weeks in those over 80, when can we expect lasting benefits for the rest of the population? ? What about the circulation of the virus in general? This Thursday, March 4, Prime Minister Jean Castex gave during his press conference on the epidemic a new vaccination schedule in France and two well-defined horizons: “By mid-May, we should have vaccinated at least 20 million people, or the entire volunteer population over 50. By the summer, we will have received enough doses to have offered vaccination to 30 million people, ie 2/3 of the population over 18 years old “.

These 30 million vaccinated correspond to two thirds of adults in France therefore, but also to a little less than half of the population. This brings us closer to the famous threshold of 60% of vaccinated, decreed by the Scientific Council as that allowing to achieve collective immunity. In light of this new timetable set by the government, can we hope for the end of the epidemic in the country by this summer? Elements of answer with doctor Gérald Kierzek, emergency doctor at the Hôtel-Dieu hospital (AP-HP) in Paris and TF1-LCI consultant.

LCI: 30 million French people will be vaccinated in the summer. Will this signal the end of the epidemic?

Gérald Kierzek: It is a way out of the crisis, without a doubt, but it is not the end of the virus. There will still be serious forms which can be managed. What we see is that the government wants to speed up vaccination to speed up the relaxation of barrier gestures. Because the objective is always to have collective immunity, with all the reservations it entails: we do not know how long this immunity can last, we do not know the effectiveness of vaccines on variants. But we must be right to keep: if we recreate the conditions specific to a cluster like that of Mulhouse a year ago, the epidemic can start again with more than half of the vaccinated population.

Does a first “relaxation” of the constraints in mid-April seem possible?

Seems reasonable to me. I think that this relaxation is possible thanks to vaccination, to the decrease in hospitalizations but also to the better knowledge that we have about the disease, which is spread inside and not outside. We could therefore resume a more normal life in a few weeks and we could even relax the measures now in several territories in France where the virus does not circulate, such as the abandonment of the mask outside which is not useful. We could therefore relax the constraints by keeping the barrier gestures, such as the mask inside, and by “bio-securing” the closed places, using saliva tests for example.

Can we consider getting vaccinated again every winter like the flu to avoid a new epidemic?

Yes, it is quite possible, for two reasons: either there will be a viral mutation which will require the vaccine to be adapted, or the immunity will not be strong enough. Today, we are unable to measure total immunity, which is not limited only to antibodies but also to cellular immunity which is difficult to assess. No longer having antibodies does not mean that you no longer have immunity.