Arizona Wildcats Face Pivotal Season Amidst Coaching and Roster Shake-Up

Can new leadership steer the Wildcats to bowl eligibility after a disappointing 2024?

July usually brings optimism for Power 4 programs, especially those coming off a 10-win season. However, the Arizona Wildcats find themselves in an unusually uncertain position, with the fanbase hoping for just a bowl game appearance for the upcoming 2025 season under head coach Brent Brennan. A revamped roster, new coordinators, and a history of midseason firings loom large.

Fresh Start with New Offensive and Defensive Architects

The Wildcats are looking to rebound from a dismal 4-8 record in 2024, a stark contrast to the 10-win magic of 2023 under Jedd Fisch before his departure to Washington. The offense struggled significantly, averaging only 21.8 points per game, ranking 114th nationally. The passing defense was also a weak point, finishing outside the top 100. With key players like Tetairoa McMillan and Jonah Savaiinaea now in the NFL, the task ahead is substantial.

Despite the challenges, Damon Fairall of the ‘AZ Wildcats’ podcast highlighted three key reasons for optimism regarding the Wildcats’ bowl prospects. First on his list is the arrival of new offensive coordinator Seth Doege.

“Top three reasons they will make a bowl game. Number one: Seth Doege is him. It’s simple. I wish you’d put a period at the end of it—Kevin should’ve. Damn it. Because that’s what I really meant when I said it.”

—Damon Fairall, Podcast Host

Fairall emphasizes Doege’s proven track record. Last season, he led Marshall’s offense to a 10-3 record and a Sun Belt title, with the team averaging 32 points and over 200 rushing yards per game. Doege’s system, a blend of Air Raid and smashmouth concepts, has impressed many. His coaching pedigree, including stints under Mike Leach and alongside Lane Kiffin and Lincoln Riley, has also drawn praise. Quarterback Noah Fifita himself called Doege the best offensive mind I’ve been around.

Under Doege, the Wildcats are expected to find a more balanced offensive identity, moving away from the reliance on a single star player. Head coach Brent Brennan believes Doege’s potential is the key to transforming an unwatchable offense into a competitive Big 12 unit.

Secondary Poised for a Turnaround

Fairall’s second reason for optimism centers on the secondary, which he believes could rank among the top five in the Big 12. This is a bold prediction given last season’s struggles, where the Wildcats allowed 239 passing yards per game and a 64% completion rate. However, the defensive backfield was hit hard by injuries, with players like Jacob Manu, Dalton Johnson, Treydan Stukes, Gunner Maldonado, and Tacario Davis all missing time or dealing with other issues.

With the unit now healthier and bolstered by portal additions such as Jay’Vion Cole, Jshawn Frausto-Ramos, and Michael Dansby, coupled with defensive coordinator Danny Gonzales’s simplified scheme, a significant improvement is anticipated. If the secondary can gel and avoid further injury woes, it could shift from a liability to a strength, requiring only competence rather than elite play to secure wins.

Offensive Line Overhaul: High Stakes Gamble

The offensive line, the third factor highlighted by Fairall, is undergoing a dramatic transformation. Last season, the line’s struggles put significant pressure on Noah Fifita, who was sacked 26 times. The unit was inconsistent and undermanned, especially after the departure of Jonah Savaiinaea.

“I think you need to see this offensive line—offensive line find some early chemistry here because you have so many new faces…Last season’s offensive line had no feel of seeing ghosts. Like Fifita was genuinely—not going to say scared—but he was genuinely tentative in the pocket for the first time in his probably entire football career.”

—Damon Fairall, Podcast Host

Brent Brennan has addressed this by bringing in over six new linemen through the portal and JUCO ranks, including veterans like Ty Buchanan from Texas Tech, Tristan Bounds from Michigan, and Jordan Brown from Georgia Tech. The projected starting five features four new faces, with Alex Doost as the lone returner. This significant overhaul is a gamble, but one Brennan felt was necessary to protect the quarterback and establish a more dominant run game.

As of August 2024, Arizona’s offensive line performance ranked 85th nationally in pressure rate allowed, according to PFF, underscoring the need for this change.

Battling Historical Precedent

Arizona’s path to bowl eligibility is not just about on-field performance; it’s also about breaking a historical pattern. The program has a concerning trend of replacing both coordinators in a single offseason and subsequently experiencing significant decline, leading to midseason firings. Examples include the 2003 season under John Mackovic and the 2010 season under Mike Stoops.

Even coaching legends like Dick Tomey and Larry Smith did not face the challenge of replacing both coordinators simultaneously. This pattern suggests that such staff shake-ups at Arizona historically ignite problems rather than solve them. Now, Brent Brennan faces this challenge in his second year, with new coordinators Seth Doege (OC) and Danny Gonzales (DC), and a heavily rotated roster.

Advanced metrics offer a cautious outlook, with ESPN’s SP+ model projecting 5.4 wins and FPI forecasting a 5-7 record, indicating a less than 50% chance of reaching bowl eligibility. However, the narrative could be rewritten if Brennan’s new hires can deliver. The team isn’t aiming for a Big 12 championship, but rather a modest goal of 6 or 7 wins. A crucial early victory or a late-season upset could provide the momentum needed to overcome the program’s historical ghosts and forge a new, more successful chapter.