Home » Technology » 21.09.20 BTC / USD Technical Analysis – Rejection of resistance, CME gap in play again? (Update)

21.09.20 BTC / USD Technical Analysis – Rejection of resistance, CME gap in play again? (Update)

K Bitcoin Analysis (BTC) from Saturday I added an update the same day that the announced breakout from the bull flag was successful. It was possible to calculate with two bullish scenarios – an early breakthrough of resistance without stretching or a throwback to the upper edge of the flag. And after a successful retest, a second attempt to break the resistance at $ 11,200.

Update 16:50

The whole capital market flies down like a stone, which I don’t like very much. As for Bitcoin, I’m absolutely sure we’ll test the support at $ 9,934. We will probably go below and then we will simply see if the individual support can be defended. I repeat, we should not go under some $ 8,880.

If the mentioned support fails to defend, then a free fall with an uncertain end can begin. As for today, I think that the downturn will slowly begin to slow down and we will see a short side consolidation, but tomorrow it can easily continue at the same pace.

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The first variant was very fast, but for the second time it seemed to be fulfilling. Unfortunately, we now know that the retest somehow didn’t work out, which just confirmed what the indicators of the technical analysis signaled. So what are the options now? Should we consider the rejection as a signal that announces the filling of the CME gap?

Current situation at 4H TF BTC / USD

Of course, the negative reaction of the exchange rate to USD 11,200 was expected, but I would say that it was too easy for the bears. So the shoppers didn’t try to break through for too long. The reflection is all the more unpleasant, as it occurred on Fibo 0.5. The retracement was therefore 50%, which means that it was only a correction of the fall itself.

Some analysts have just been waiting for this, and again, a little more will be calculated with the vision of filling the CME gap – so there is a possibility of a decline of about 9,400 USD. The market is playing with us a lot, because we clung to the gap before and now it leads us to it again. And I have to admit, it’s really on the agenda.

In any case, the first major support is at $ 10,481 and the second in line is, of course, $ 9,934. Then $ 9,400 and $ 8,880. If the course got below the last mentioned support, it would automatically mean a problem and it would probably mean a postponement of the bull run until 2022. If you do not understand why now, then look at the first graph in my previous analysis.

Take a closer look at the volumes, which are still quite desperate. Given the rejection, I am quite surprised that sales volumes have hardly increased. Given that the exchange rate is now declining, I deduce from this that buyers are completely without initiative, when such marginal selling pressure is sufficient for the decline. I simply see nothing positive about it.

Indicators

As I said in the introduction, it turned out that the sales signals from RSI and MACD turned out to be valid. In connection with the denial of resistance, I am therefore not surprised that the bulls have given up. In addition, there were massive anomalies in the form of bearish divergence on the indicators, which took place. As for the development of the curves, a broadening wedge is plotted on RSI.

Conclusion

As I pointed out, so holt again on the spot to consider filling the CME gap. But I don’t think we should be so attached to it, and if the bulls show strength again in support of $ 9,934, take it that the market just doesn’t want to fill the gap.

In any case, from the local low to the high at $ 11,200 resistance, it took over ten days. Given that declines are always much more dynamic, attacking support at $ 9,934 within five days is realistic.

The CME gap could easily be filled by the end of the week. On the other hand, the market can serve us a double bottom on the support mentioned several times. Therefore, it is definitely worth monitoring volumes in connection with price action.

ATTENTION: No data in the article is an investment board. Before you invest, do your own research and analysis, you always trade only at your own risk. The kryptomagazin.cz team strongly recommends individual risk considerations!

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