Investors hope for ECB support


However, from the point of view of Michael Gapen, an analyst at Barclays Bank in the UK, Draghi could prepare the markets for further shifting interest rates. He expects a cautious speech by the ECB chief, writes Gapen in an analysis. The reason for this is the recent weak economic data from the euro area.

Growth in Germany, for example, slowed down significantly in the fourth quarter of 2018. Compared to the previous quarter, gross domestic product (GDP) has increased according to preliminary figures, only by 0.1 percent. In the third quarter, the German economy even shrank slightly, meaning that the largest economy in the Eurozone barely missed a recession.

In addition, the inflation rate in the Monetary Union, at 1.6 per cent, is well below the ECB's 2 per cent target. Thus, there is little reason for Draghi to deviate from its low-interest policy. Should the head of the ECB express concern about developments in the eurozone, investors should interpret this as the signal for a rate hike at the earliest in 2020 - and access shares.


The US prescriptions are also positive: On Friday, investors covered themselves again with US equities. The reason for this was a rapprochement in the trade dispute between the US and China. According to an agency report, China is telling the US to introduce significantly more products over the next six years, thereby reducing its trade deficit.

"It's almost impossible to assess the state of US-China relations properly," said Jasper Lawler, chief analyst at online broker LCG. "Nevertheless, the market is thirsting for every headline. That shows how sensitively he reacts to the trade theme. "

The Dow Jones index rose 1.4 percent to 24,706 points on Friday. The broader S & P 500 gained 1.3 percent to 2670 points, while the Nasdaq technology exchange index was up 1.0 percent at 7157 points.

The Wall Street managed the fourth week with consecutive gains: The Dow has gained just under three percent since Monday, the S & P 2.9 percent and the Nasdaq 2.7 percent - as strong gains since October 2011 no longer. The Dax in Frankfurt had closed 2.6 percent firmer.

The budget dispute in the US is likely to keep investors busy in the coming week. The longer the US government shutdown continues, the more serious the impact on the US economy is likely to be. Torsten Sløk, Chief Economist at Deutsche Bank in New York, estimates that the shutdown has already cost 0.2 to 0.3 percentage points of GDP growth.










If the blockade on the budget continues throughout the quarter, Sløk's economic growth could fall by one percentage point. While an agreement between Democrats and Republicans in the budget dispute is unlikely, it could continue to shore up equity markets.

However, one risk for the markets could be China: the country will present figures on GDP last Monday. Negative surprises in China's economic growth could put a damper on the stock markets. On Thursday, the German and European purchasing managers will also be publishing a much-noticed economic barometer.

The reporting season is also continuing in the USA. For example, the IT giant IBM, the pharmaceutical company Johnson & Johnson and the Swiss bank UBS are presenting figures. Last week, some companies had already published surprisingly negative numbers.

So the electric car pioneer Tesla made first calculations according to the annual financial statements less profit than in the third quarter. In addition, 3000 jobs are to be canceled. Tesla's title lost nearly 13 percent on Friday.

Disappointed investors also responded to the numbers of Netflix. The online video library attracted as many new customers as never before. However, the increase in sales at the end of 2018 and the targets for the current quarter fell short of expectations. Netflix shares were down four percent.

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