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I think Tesla cars …
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That is better than Europe, but worse than Germany. A catch-up effect there has artificially inflated the market.
Which catch-up effect?
Firstly, the aftermath of the changes to the new WLTP test cycle. On the other hand, there is the pressure to move the big gas guzzlers to 2019, because stricter CO 2 requirements apply to gel 2 requirements. Germany will therefore buckle in 2020. This was not felt so strongly in Switzerland, so the Swiss market is more stable.
For years it has been said that Switzerland is an important and special market for the automotive industry. It cannot be due to the sales figures – 311 466 vehicles in 2019. What else?
Switzerland is a niche market. Only 0.4 percent of all PW sold worldwide find their buyers in Switzerland. But there are some Swiss who can afford the beautiful, expensive cars. In Switzerland, you can earn money for premium manufacturers.
Nevertheless, the share of alternative drives rose to 40 714 vehicles in 2019. This gives a market share of 13.1 percent. Is it a success or a disappointment?
It is a very good result. Switzerland is in a different league compared to Germany. In Germany we only had a 6.6 percent share of the alternatives. This also applies to fully electric cars. Tesla’s market share in Switzerland alone is larger than the total share of electric cars in Germany.
Will the electro boom continue in 2020?
Of course, but how high the increase will depend primarily on the market launch and the production of the VW ID.3, the deliveries of the Porsche Taycan and the Tesla Model Y. However, all of this should only start up in the second half of the year, making forecasts difficult.
Number 1 of the Stromer is Tesla with 6061 copies. With this result, the Americans have surpassed brands such as Alfa Romeo, Honda, Mini, Mitsubishi, Nissan or Subaru. Does that continue?
Most certainly yes. Tesla will reach 800,000 or more in five years from last year’s 367,500 worldwide shipments. Other traditional brands will be overhauled in Switzerland.
Why is Tesla so successful?
On the one hand it is the time advantage, on the other hand the fact that Tesla currently has the best electric drive. The finest in energy efficiency and other innovations such as autopilots and software updates. The Swiss appreciate that: innovations that are fun and compatible with our climate.
Nevertheless, over 40 percent of new cars came from German brands in 2019. What is the recipe for success of the German automotive industry?
High quality, perfect workmanship and driving dynamics that are also fun in the Swiss mountains.
The worst result of the German brands was achieved in 2019 with a decrease of 17.4 percent. Are you surprised?
No, because the equation Opel = Peugeot has been valid for almost three years. One has a lion on the grill, the other has a flash. This is cost-effective, but not innovative. Only with the best costs and a football coach in advertising is it difficult to be successful in the long term. General Motors has had the best cost structure over decades of scale and has gone bankrupt. In addition, the PSA Group struggles not only in Switzerland, but also in the largest and most important market, China.
Both Citroën, DS Automobiles, Peugeot and Renault sold less in 2019, the French market share is 8.65 percent. Why?
DS is unsuccessful worldwide. Simply to believe that you now sell a Citroën as a DS and call it Premium, does not work. The innovation that the customer wants to experience is missing. Otherwise, he can go straight to Dacia.
It looks even worse for Alfa Romeo, Fiat and Maserati – the minus compared to 2018 is 13 percent. Have you slept through the turn of the times?
Italians are good when they’re called Ferrari. The engineers there build cars to win Formula One. Alfa used to be a big brand, but unfortunately a lot was lost during the Fiat Chrysler economy.
But everyone has to save.
Yes, you have to pay attention to costs, but costs are the secondary conditions in the business. The target variable is emotion, i.e. innovation.
Asian manufacturers, with Lexus and Toyota posting double-digit growth, developed positively in 2019. What was their strength?
Toyota once scored with the hybrid. An important innovation that is now fading. And then the Japanese played their quality offensive 30 years ago – another very successful strategy. But everyone does that today, which is why the next ten years will be exciting.
Ferdinand Dudenhöffer: The “car pope” heads the CAR Center at the University of Duisburg-Essen.
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